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House Lawmakers Appeal To Chu To Protect National Ignition Facility
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A bipartisan group of 100 House lawmakers is appealing to Energy Secretary Steven Chu to preserve funding for Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s National Ignition Facility. The facility has been beset by complications in its quest to achieve fusion ignition and after the facility missed a key milestone at the end of June, the National Nuclear Security Administration acknowledged that it was unlikely that the lab would achieve fusion ignition by the promised target of the end of the fiscal year. A potential $30 million funding cut in Fiscal Year 2013 and a change in the way overhead rates are charged for the facility that would further cut into its budget has the lawmakers—led by California Democrats Pete Stark and Zoe Lofgren and Ohio Republican Michael Turner—worried about the future of the facility.
In the Aug. 3 letter, the lawmakers noted that the facility recently conducted the first 500 terawatt laser shot. “Given the tremendous progress to date, we are concerned that—rather than technical and scientific challenges—administrative, managerial and budgetary hurdles threaten to impede this promising research,” the lawmakers wrote, suggesting that management problems at DOE and NNSA could impact the facility. “We are concerned that the scientific advances at NIF and around the DOE/NNSA complex are being stifled by micromanagement and burdensome administrative processes.” The lawmakers encouraged Chu to “personally engage” on the management issues facing the NNSA and visit NIF. “It would be severely disappointing to get so close to a tremendous scientific breakthrough—fusion ignition at NIF—only to see it prevented by bureaucracy,” the lawmakers wrote.
Comments
But then again, who knows. Maybe as they frantically fiddle with the knobs over the next few months, things will suddenly work, and suddenly, "let there be light."
What a stupid statement. No venture capitalist would invest $6B on capital and then would only test the idea for 1/2 year and $300M. If it was worth investing in, it is at least worth seeing if it can be achieved. Throwing in the towel in the first round is the silliest kind of defeatism.
Ya built the microscope, now use it.
Ghost of Lewenhouk
Some people refer to this as "confirmation bias" (you can find it on google). The suggestion is that confirmation bias is behind the befuddlement surrounding the alpha heating milestone failure.
Confirmation, rejection or discovery will occur as nature reveals it secrets to the careful observer.
The use of the NIF tool allows careful observers to explore a realm of physical phenomena not previously accessible.
It is a very exciting time. Model updates will follow. Current ideas will evolve or take a quantum leap as the phenomena is studied.
Again, think telescope.
Also being 4 orders of magnitude off really also doesn't look at all like anything "tantalizing close." But we'll see. Maybe someone forgot to turn a switch somewhere, and when they figure that out, everything will work like a charm. Or maybe, for example, the transport models are so inadequate and optimistic that we are indeed fooling ourselves into believing that we are close to ignition.
Science will reveal her secrets, and none of the opinions on this page matter.
Its kinda like telling your doctor what your illness is while the diagnostic tests are underway.
Save your breath. Patience.
The question is whether to keep throwing good money after bad. No persuasive argument has been made to support this idea that we should keep going this route or for how long? What is the exit strategy? To keep asking for patience every year before budget season? At what point would you accept the possibility that you have been deceiving yourself all along, if that indeed turns out to be the case?
Skeptics of NIF don't have to argue our points because the reasoning is self evident. NIF is a sunk cost and terminating it for failing to meet a critical milestone with no credible plan to solve the problem, is a rational and defendable move without requiring any argument. Proponents who ask for more time and money are the ones who need to be the ones begging and making their case.
I predict that NIF management will blame the failure on one of the following:
(a) blame defects in an "unnamed" specialized part from an "unnamed" vendor, but that the "unnamed" manufacturing problem could not be resolved.
(b) blame excessive NNSA oversight (through some bizarre twisted logic)
(c) blame NNSA or Congress for not providing the funds to "finish what they had started," making ridiculous and unsubstantiated claims that they are 95% or 99% close to ignition but the bullies in Washington prevented them from succeeding.
(d) blame crazed hell-bent anonymous bloggers who poisoned the minds of LLNL scientists and middle management, tainting their perspective and manipulating them in such a manner as to create a self-fulfilling prophecy situation.
The correct answer is (d). Be patient these are exciting times for all us. The ship is built it is now time to sail around the world.
(d) blame crazed hell-bent anonymous bloggers who poisoned the minds of LLNL scientists and middle management, tainting their perspective and manipulating them in such a manner as to create a self-fulfilling prophecy situation.
This allows NIF to (1) "take the blind gamble" hoping that the problem will fix itself or that someone will figure it out in time, (2) buy the lab some time to buy support especially if there is a new administration or even buy time to find ways to get rid of D'Agostino and Cook, (3) have more time to play the public relations campaign, and (4) avoid getting slammed for not having any credible plan for a fix.
The other strategy is to designate something in NIF (like the material properties of gold or beryllium or fused silica) so classified and so critical to national security, and use that to justify maintaining a veil of secrecy.
Of course these tactics would have to be made much more sophisticated and legally complex because most of us see right through them.
I'm a fan of science fiction. And NIF fits in quite well i that genre.
August 8, 2012 9:04 PM
A you kidding me? We have all we need to know about bombs and the worthless universe. The people on earth aren't going anywhere and there's not a damn planet within reach we can get to in our lifetime that's habitable so why dump money into a black hole. Who gives a hoot about how the earth was made or even how it's going to be destroyed. We can't stop it anyway. When it's time, it's time.
Every dime every spent on NIF, stockpile stewardship, etc. should have been funneled into research for alternative clean energy that produces no radiation and all which can be manufactured using existing capabilities.
Congress should pull all funding from the weapons labs and give it to the labs that do alternative enegry non weapons work.
I surprised Chu isn't playing this card in DC and making it happen.
I find it ironic that LLNL management proxies are going out to these websites and posting material, urging for more time, money and patience, when in reality, it's just fueling the fire and keeping the conversation alive in a way that doesn't help the lab at all.
August 9, 2012 3:04 PM"
In principle I agree however the money is even better spent on social engineering and cultural change through mass education, programs, and, economic leverage. The problem with clean energy is that it does not solve the problem. It is like giving an addict "clean" heroine when the problem is the drug use to begin with. We need to fundamentally change the way we live so we do not use so much energy, dirty, clean or otherwise. This will not be easy and you can't make an omelette without breaking a few eggs nor can can you make a revolution with silk gloves but we can start by defunding the labs.
"Partly in response to this record of under-performing lasers and faulty code predictions of ignition, DOE conducted a secret series of underground nuclear tests in the period 1979-88 -- the so-called "Halite-Centurion" experiments -- to actually measure how much absorbed x-ray energy was required to ignite a fusion fuel capsule. The H/C program started in 1978 and produced ignition data by mid 1984, focused on the physics of the ignition capsule. LLNL ceased Halite experiments in 1987 and LANL stopped Centurion in 1988.
It can be deduced from the fragmentary information in the public domain about these experiments that targets designed to absorb less than about 20 MJ in the underground tests failed to achieve ignition (i.e. an energy gain of at least one). This fact leads some ICF experts to suggest that certain minimum capsule dimensions, wall thickness, material strengths, pulse lengths, and hence absorbed energies may be needed to minimize "hydrodynamic instabilities" (fluid turbulence) and thereby achieve the requisite degree of capsule compression and hot spot propagation into the surrounding fuel. While no one is yet sure exactly where these thresholds are, some weapons scientists remain convinced the Halite-Centurion results attest to the need for a very powerful driver, on the order of 100 MJ, in order to be confident of ignition and modest gain. [14] This follows from the fact that only about a fifth of the available driver energy is absorbed by the capsule in an optimal indirect-drive configuration. [15]"
NIF 1.8MJ
When it was falling horribly behind in construction, it was bolstered by even more lies to receive even more money.
Now that the lies have been uncovered by the hard facts of physics, a clueless Congress comes to NIF's rescue to blame "micro-management", which is a HUGE lie being pushed by the unethical managers at LLNL who profited from this turkey for almost two decade!
At long last, LLNL NIF managers, have you no shame? No shame at all? This is not science. It's piggish thuggery of the worst type!
I would first start off with the technical review committee, for example. I would go through every NIF technical review committee, names of the reviewers, their current employer, etc.
If the top is immune to pressure, you can still exert pressure from the bottom.
The world ran this experiment. It was called the Soviet Union. Epic fail. There was lots of social engineering and cultural change through mass education, programs, and, economic leverage.
The result was mass murder, environmental devastation, starvation, gulags, secret police, extreme poverty, power-elite rulers, and millions of lives with no opportunity.
No way. Not again.
The world ran this experiment...
Social engineering: universal suffrage
Mass education: publicly-funded primary schools
Economic leverage: the interstate highway system
It's called the United States.
More decades of big, fat management promotions for "doing a fantastic job!" on 'saving' NIF. That's why.
It's nothing more than a never-ending lab manager's promotion machine.
Because NIF is a fine machine that if we are patient will let Nature reveal her secrets. This is a special time...paradigms will shift, theories will fall, new theories will emerge, confirmations will be made and most...most...most exciting of all is that new unexpected events will happen that could not be foreseen by any theory at all but could only be observed by running the experiment! These are exciting times indeed, NIF is built it is now time to run the experiments!!!!
I remember a fair number of religious nutcases working in the lab... most of them mediocre in terms of technical or analytical ability, but all very much fervent believers in these programs, and some of them even offering to pray for you and "save your soul" while you wondered how to tactfully leave their office.
It all makes me wonder about the dynamics of the lab and whether it's a breeding ground for certain types of personalities. "Doing well at LLNL" was a label that was not applied to people who were superstars in their field of expertise and well regarded on the outside. On top of that, I do have to say that it is a great place for learning guerrilla strategy and tactics, perfecting your ability to read lies and deceptions, and how to survive in a toxic working environment.
OMG that is so right. Not that there is anything wrong with hillbilly but is is kind of odd at a such place. Af
You mean they actually require you to work and don't base advancement on color, race, sex or creed. What a concept. If that's hillbilly, I'm all for it. Personally I still see where we are filling quota's with people of this type that are totally worhtless and yet they are still employed. I'd have fired their asses decades ago simply because they were and are worthless to the group or to the labs.
To add to the problem, as mentioned above, the lab really doesn't have a way to properly assess the value of any employee's contributions to the organization based on any "normal" definition of "merit."
There are so many lingering asswipes and parasites at llnl, and they are so because it improves their survivability there. And they have no prospect of actually competing in a broader job marketplace and landing a job elsewhere. Though it's nice at LLNL where you can pedal fast going nowhere on a bicycle without any wheels and still collect a paycheck.
And yes, this brings us back to NIF, the grand social welfare program for many of these people to afford their 6 figure income, and pay for their underwater mortgages and cookiecutter homes with flat screen tv in each of the 3.5 bathrooms.
The instrument to study this regime of physics phenomena exists.
Use it. Ignore the hoi polloi. Characterize this realm.
Anything else is foolish.
So far, detractors present weak conjecture, that can be settled by completing the current campaign.
Non credible estimations and lack of credible supporting evidence for when ignition can be achieved.
Exceptionally poor technical risk management practices.
Rumor goes: Elly Mae hooked up with the the dashing Mr. Drysdale. As a result, Mr. Drysdale was forced to resign.
But it's a fact that Elly Mae's critters are the ones who serve on NIF's technical review committee.
The rational business decision is to shut down capabilities that do not provide effects that support their intended core missions.
http://www.aip.org/fyi/2012/067.html
Senate Report:
“The Committee remains concerned about NIF’s ability to achieve ignition - the primary purpose of constructing the facility - by the end of fiscal year 2012 when the National Ignition Campaign ends and the facility is to transition to regular ignition operations and pursue broad scientific applications. The Committee directs NNSA to establish an independent advisory committee as soon as possible to help set a strategic direction for inertial confinement fusion and high-energy density physics research and determine how best to use current facilities to advance this scientific field. If NIF does not achieve ignition by the end of fiscal year 2012 using a cryogenically layered deuterium and tritium target that produces a neutron yield with a gain greater than 1, the Committee directs NNSA to submit a report by November 30, 2012 that (1) explains the scientific and technical barriers to achieving ignition; (2) the steps NNSA will take to achieve ignition with a revised schedule; and (3) the impact on the stockpile stewardship program.
House Report:
“As the first ignition campaign comes to a close in fiscal year 2012, it is a distinct possibility that the NNSA will not achieve ignition during these initial experiments. While achieving ignition was never scientifically assured, the considerable costs will not have been warranted if the only role the National Ignition Facility (NIF) serves is that of an expensive platform for routine high energy density physics experiments. The Committee continues to support the pursuit of ignition and urges the NNSA to develop a cost-effective strategy for future experimental activity as the next phase of scientific effort begins. The recommendation supports a lower, though still robust, level of experimental activity on the NIF in fiscal year 2013 given the completion of major diagnostic acquisitions and the shift in experimental tempo.”
What is the lab's strategy? Is llnl going to try to get an extension?
http://fire.pppl.gov/nif_nears_milestone_Nature_030712.pdf
When Ed moses said that they were 75% of the way to ignition, i first though he meant 75% of the way to a 2.2MJ threshold (a number automagically pulled from out of thin air) to get gain > 1.
How silly of me. I realize that 75% is in terms of time, and that for 40 years of effort, getting to ignition will take another 13 years at the funding levels needed to sustain current levels of activity at NIF.
Poor risk management - in fact opposite is true, risk management has been, and is excellent. The risks are known, well characterized and managed as well as can be, given that the natural purpose of the instrument is to explore this uncharacterized regime of physics.
Poor cost controls - dubious assertion since the reorganization, that occured coincident with Campbell's departure. Ed and Ralph have done an excellent job getting very high productivity out of the troops, and have convinced the institution to give significant overhead concessions as part of the PACE effort, making each NIF employee about 50% more effective to the taxpayer.
Haven't achieved alpha milestone - True. May take a short or longer time, but the instument exists to explore the phenomena.
THAT'S THE POINT. IF THE ANSWER WAS KNOWN, YOU WOULD'NT NEED THE INSTUMENT, YOU'D LOOK IT UP IN WIKI. BUT IT DOESN'T YET EXIST. THAT IS THE POINT OF THE ENDEAVOR.
Then the endeavor needs to be terminated and the funds spend elsewhere immediately.
What a shame. I'd pull the plug on NIF so quick in Oct of this year it would resemble MFTF and in six month that lot would be vacant.
"History does not favor shutting down big, expensive sandbox programs. Just look at LANSCE. It is still feasting at the taxpayer's trough 30 years after it should have been terminated. It is like a zombie that just won't die and keeps coming back to life time after time in a lousy C grade horror movie."
Now that's funny! I don't care who you are, but the image of trough feasting LANCE zombies is a hoot!!
When NIF management is forcing scientists from other programs to work on NIF (but not really, it's just to prevent them from working on non-NIF problems and adding gravity to NIF), that is a poor cost control.
If you were to do an audit of people who worked on NIF, and asked everyone what they were doing, and you found these individuals who themselves don't know what they are working on, but that they were pulled on other non-NIF programs, and now they are doing basically nothing for long periods of time on NIF charge accounts.... that is poor cost control.
Checkmate
Checkmate
2. Lower overhead rates for PACE projects is a common accounting technique for capital projects that require less overhead than ordinary operations and that add to the value of an organization. This has been common DOE project management practice for 35+ years i n projects at LLNL, LANL, LBL, SLAC, ORNL and SSC in my personal experience. It has nothing to do with cost control. It is a financial accounting practice called overhead accounting.
3. Repeating over and over, it will not work, while the investigation is underway does not make the conjecture any more true for the repeating. Repetition is not persuasive reasoning.
So with $6B invested in the fine instrument and a well-funded, dedicated scientific staff carrying out the investigation, we will , within the next few years, be able to confirm or disprove your oft repeated personal conjecture, "NIF will not work" with valid data.
Meanwhile the work of scientific observation and reasoning continues.
Methinks your cry of "checkmate" to be a premature ejaculation.
That's a mighty fine reason to drop the axe.
Checkmate.
How much more time does NIF want to solve the alpha heating milestone failure?
tick tick tick tick...
15 years? 30 years?
tick tick tick tick
A more careful look at them, as well as the arrangement .... would explain quite a bit.
There were some recent charts in DC comparing the sources of revenue for all the sites over the past few years and LLNL came out looking very good so I've heard. SNL also looked good, but LANL was down for this year in most areas, by a large fraction in some of them such as WFO. If Parney is able to develop and maintain additional diversification of revenue sources, then it is not likely that NIF will have a dramatic impact on LLNL - either positive or negative.
But it's really the lack of public trust and past deceptions that makes this all stick. Applied to an organization like, say "Google" or "Apple" these arguments are just normal business decisions. But NIF has a very unique and sordid past. NIF and LLNL had over a decade to rebuild public trust but they squandered that opportunity.
world and shall exist until the last star falls from the night.
Although I have taken the form of Ed Moses, I am all men as I am no man and therefore I am... a God.
I shall wait for the unanimous decision of
LLNLs, Claudius.
Claudius: All those who say aye, say aye.
Ed: Aye... aye!
LLNLs boad of directors: Aye! Aye! Aye!..
Staff Member: He's a god now...
"But it's really the lack of public trust and past deceptions that makes this all stick..."
Baloney, Old news. Double jeopardy.
Cry as you might, since NIF was reorganized over 10 years ago, to update the budget and schedule to match the methods and processes required to produce the laser and target systems, the timeliness, performance, safety and technical reviews have been remarkable. In that time an amazing instument has appeared in a empty field.
You ought to get off of your couch and visit it. Visitors are welcome and generally overwhelmed with what they experience.
It is not done yet, for breakthroughs, like isotopic decay, come in their own time, but for the first time, we have an instument to study this phenomena.
What luck.
The facility is not the product. Ignition and mission support is the product.
We see right through the trickery and deception.
August 19, 2012 6:53 AM
Bingo! McMillan announced to this Senior Leadership Team two weeks ago that LANS would begin performing "Mini RIFs". RIFs that would be less than 100 people at a time so they wouldn't have to report to the DOE. I also also see McMillan plagiarizing Roger Logan's words "Mini".
Don't you think it's time for DOE / NNSA to step in and cut LANL and LLNL by 50% before Oct 1st, 2012. Let's just get-R-Done once and forever and stop BS-ing around? It's all so simple if the AH's in DOE and NNSA thought about it. Just offer a really good buy-out like one month pay for every years of service to be put into your 403b or 401k , employees choice, TAX FREE and those twoo labs would be f-ing vacant. They could reasonably do this if they’d realize the savings by doing so and not piss off every worker they currently have.