National Ignition Facility seeks new cash
David Perlman
San Francisco Chronicle
Tuesday, December 4, 2012
The elusive effort to mimic the explosive violence of hydrogen bombs inside Livermore's giant National Ignition Facility, long delayed, now faces intense scrutiny by a dollar-conscious Congress.
The National Nuclear Security Agency in charge of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory says in a draft report to Congress that the lab's scientists should conduct at least three more years of experiments. An estimated $5 billion or more has been spent over the past 10 years to build and run the project called NIF, and current experiments are running at least $450 million a year.
Congress had set the end of this year as the deadline for "ignition," as the goal is termed. Now the nuclear agency's report says the extension is needed for NIF scientists to consider two very different and untried technical approaches to the extraordinarily complex physics problems that have prevented them so far from achieving their goal of duplicating the explosion of an H-bomb in the lab.
Congressional experts are reviewing the report and some are highly skeptical about its eventual success. The final report from the nuclear security agency is expected early next week, when congressional staff specialists will begin considering its implications for NIF's future.
NIF's goal is still "very, very far away," said one congressional expert who follows the technical details closely. The expert, who asked to remain anonymous because he was not authorized to speak publicly about the project, complained that the nuclear agency appears to be asking Congress for a "blank check" until at least 2015.
"They're asking us to give them a blank check ... and then we'd see where we are," the expert said. "That worries me. They're not even close."
The ultimate aim of NIF's nuclear weapons scientists is to understand the obscure physics involved in thermonuclear fusion, validate related computer codes, and thereby assure the safety and reliability of America's aging weapons stockpile without the underground bomb tests that are now banned by international treaty...
But after 35 experiments and more than 1,000 laser shots since NIF scientists began three years ago, the effort has fallen short. In order to achieve ignition, the laser beams would have to produce between three and 10 times more energy and heat than they have been able to accomplish, the report said.
Just where the problems lie remains a mystery. A national committee of laser experts headed by Stanford physicist Robert L. Byer recently had high praise for the NIF laser's "robust operation" and said it has "met and exceeded its design goals." The NIF scientists, the committee concluded, are on a credible path toward upgrading the laser array to reach the energies needed for ignition...
NIF project director Ed Moses declined to comment on the report until its final version is complete. But he said it's impossible to make predictions about success in any field where such complex science is involved...
In experiments so far, the laser shots fired at target after target have yielded pressures 15o billion times Earth's atmosphere, he said, but pressures twice as high are still needed for ignition...
But NIF's giant laser array is now performing spectacularly, he said, and its total output of energy and power is "more than we need," Moses said.
David Perlman
San Francisco Chronicle
Tuesday, December 4, 2012
The elusive effort to mimic the explosive violence of hydrogen bombs inside Livermore's giant National Ignition Facility, long delayed, now faces intense scrutiny by a dollar-conscious Congress.
The National Nuclear Security Agency in charge of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory says in a draft report to Congress that the lab's scientists should conduct at least three more years of experiments. An estimated $5 billion or more has been spent over the past 10 years to build and run the project called NIF, and current experiments are running at least $450 million a year.
Congress had set the end of this year as the deadline for "ignition," as the goal is termed. Now the nuclear agency's report says the extension is needed for NIF scientists to consider two very different and untried technical approaches to the extraordinarily complex physics problems that have prevented them so far from achieving their goal of duplicating the explosion of an H-bomb in the lab.
Congressional experts are reviewing the report and some are highly skeptical about its eventual success. The final report from the nuclear security agency is expected early next week, when congressional staff specialists will begin considering its implications for NIF's future.
NIF's goal is still "very, very far away," said one congressional expert who follows the technical details closely. The expert, who asked to remain anonymous because he was not authorized to speak publicly about the project, complained that the nuclear agency appears to be asking Congress for a "blank check" until at least 2015.
"They're asking us to give them a blank check ... and then we'd see where we are," the expert said. "That worries me. They're not even close."
The ultimate aim of NIF's nuclear weapons scientists is to understand the obscure physics involved in thermonuclear fusion, validate related computer codes, and thereby assure the safety and reliability of America's aging weapons stockpile without the underground bomb tests that are now banned by international treaty...
But after 35 experiments and more than 1,000 laser shots since NIF scientists began three years ago, the effort has fallen short. In order to achieve ignition, the laser beams would have to produce between three and 10 times more energy and heat than they have been able to accomplish, the report said.
Just where the problems lie remains a mystery. A national committee of laser experts headed by Stanford physicist Robert L. Byer recently had high praise for the NIF laser's "robust operation" and said it has "met and exceeded its design goals." The NIF scientists, the committee concluded, are on a credible path toward upgrading the laser array to reach the energies needed for ignition...
NIF project director Ed Moses declined to comment on the report until its final version is complete. But he said it's impossible to make predictions about success in any field where such complex science is involved...
In experiments so far, the laser shots fired at target after target have yielded pressures 15o billion times Earth's atmosphere, he said, but pressures twice as high are still needed for ignition...
But NIF's giant laser array is now performing spectacularly, he said, and its total output of energy and power is "more than we need," Moses said.
Comments
While this appears to address the ignition goal, readers should refer to the "deuterium EOS" thread for additional pertinent information on the stockpile stewardship goals.
With the budget about to go over the fiscal cliff, might as well put NIF on the chopping block with everything else. It's more than earned a huge chop.
Today the latest Corvette produces about 125 hp/L with a 11.5:1 compression ratio.
I think advances in target configuration and tailoring the laser input pulses will be the key. And some young post-doc will someday get the Nobel Prize for solving the problem.
Nice to have the right tools in place to do the job.
High Performance Fusion Plant of the Future = Corvette
Facility Reaching Break Even = First Internal Combustion Engine
NIF in its current form = (You Fill In The Blank).
However, Byers should be very careful about what he says about the technical merit and approaches. The quality of data and publications coming out of the facility and previous efforts using similar approaches is questionable and riddled with problems. We will see how comprehensive his due diligence is and how his findings support his conclusions and recommendations. Otherwise, the community will also be happy to correct him after his report is finalized, though that would not reflect well on him if it has to resort to this.
Facility Reaching Break Even = First Internal Combustion Engine
NIF in its current form = (You Fill In The Blank). A pipe dream that is not meeting todays need as an immediate alternative source of energy and will not for decades, or maybe even centuries to come.
As a nation we are putting our tax dollars in the wrong area. We should be concentrating on power from wind, solar, geothermal and wave plans all of which need to be plugged into a central buss and keep right on moving forward until every a single square foot of desert lands are covered with solar tracking arrays.
You want to make jobs for people for the next 100 + years, here’s your answer. Not projects like NIF or LIFE… MFE, etc
We know all we need to know about weapons and how to build them. Now its time to move on to what important to the nation and its future.
Facility Reaching Break Even = First Internal Combustion Engine
NIF in its current form = (You Fill In The Blank). A pipe dream that is not meeting todays need as an immediate alternative source of energy and will not for decades, or maybe even centuries to come.
As a nation we are putting our tax dollars in the wrong area. We should be concentrating on power from wind, solar, geothermal and wave plans all of which need to be plugged into a central buss and keep right on moving forward until every a single square foot of desert lands are covered with solar tracking arrays.
You want to make jobs for people for the next 100 + years, here’s your answer. Not projects like NIF or LIFE… MFE, etc
We know all we need to know about weapons and how to build them. Now its time to move on to what important to the nation and its future.
I was wondering when someone was going to recognize where all the waste was, which way to turn and how to make job. No, Omega is not the answer. Enery now, using technolgies we currently have and can make improvements on is the answer.
Of course you can put your money whereever you like. I choose to buy oil and gas from North Dakota shale cause it has the lowest cost and will be available for 100 years.
As for the $ that the Obamanation takes from me for both of these purposes, my vote is the return them to me, or alternatively use the $ to reduce the national debt.
The need R&D into alternative fuels is mooted by the development of oil shale output.
My vote is to get the entire socialist democratic party abolished off the face of the earth, the US out of the UN and it's building turned into a apartment complex. Now that would be a good begining to get this country going in the right direction
Basel III will require banks to hold 4.5% of common equity (up from 2% in Basel II) and 6% of Tier I capital (up from 4% in Basel II) of risk-weighted assets (RWA). Basel III also introduces additional capital buffers, (i) a mandatory capital conservation buffer of 2.5% and (ii) a discretionary countercyclical buffer, which allows national regulators to require up to another 2.5% of capital during periods of high credit growth. In addition, Basel III introduces a minimum 3% leverage ratio and two required liquidity ratios. The Liquidity Coverage Ratio requires a bank to hold sufficient high-quality liquid assets to cover its total net cash outflows over 30 days; the Net Stable Funding Ratio requires the available amount of stable funding to exceed the required amount of stable funding over a one-year period of extended stress.[8]
December 7, 2012 12:42 PM
Which would be huntin n fishin, Right?
Basil! . . . Basil! . . . Basil! . . .
All Livermorons should post random stuff to prevent the truth from being discussed. Not to worry, we'll correlate your messages with your IP and publish information regarding your activities using government resources.
December 7, 2012 8:44 PM
I guess that's good for a 50% reduction in force at LANL and LLNL? People come here because this is where they get more information that anyone at these two facilities would ever tell the workers or for that matter the public. Personally I'm glad this blog is here and I support Scooby Doo 120% for overseeing it. It is my hopes everyone comes here and everyone has a say. I think 99% of all the people who come here know we're spending the tax dollars in the wrong places and on the wrong projects. The other 1% as just mad LLNL got more attention than LANL where one accomplished nothing and the other one basically is no longer needed. Believe me people, those in DC are going to someday wake up, funnel the money where it needs to be and both facilities are going to get hit really hard. I'm just amazed it takes then more than an eye blink to get it done regardless of the consequences. Personally I think it all about keeping people employed and getting re-elected is all they care about. Common sense is non-existent.
Do you normally threaten people on an anonymous Blog if the conversation does follow your thinking?
It is Sat. You morons!
What makes you think that all replies to this Blog are from Lab employees on Lab time?
"Yup, must Suck to be You!"
Please retitle this thread,
Bitchiness between underinformed LANL and LLNL cheering squads
You're missing the point. The stupidity is regarding the the people at the lab who do post during work hours, from government networks using government resources. This is not "hypothetical" either.
December 8, 2012 9:41 PM
Your claim is "kinda silly". Posted from a Lab computer, the public IP address is the Lab public IP address - no further info unless the Lab wants to follow up internally. Unlikely since all the cybersec people are chasing the firewall attacks that occur a million times a day.
From home, you have an ISP that presents a common IP address to the world. If you think your employer is chasing you down over the internet without probable cause for fraud or crime, you are simply paranoid.
Back to our meds.
NNSA three stooges screw up the Lab employment contracts in 2007 and Wall St. crashes in '08.
Conincidence or rogue high speed trading?