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Wednesday, November 11, 2015
NIF projections
What mission path is NIF on now and what will the funding and staffing levels look like in 12-24 months?
21 comments:
Anonymous
said...
I hear it's being shut down this year. Some guy who reads Time magazine and probably talks like Ricky Ricardo killed it off, and all the money is going to support vastly harder fusion schemes like proton-boron.
Anonymous Anonymous said... I hear it's being shut down this year. November 11, 2015 at 5:17 PM
Anonymous Anonymous said... November 11, 2015 at 5:17 PM
That is also what I am hearing. Makes sense if you think about.
November 11, 2015 at 7:55 PM
Are you serious. No one in NNSA/DOE is going to shut it down. That would be an admission of another DOE management fiasco -- over schedule, over budget, and failure to meet goals -- and yet another trip up the hill to catch a load of flak. No one in DOE has the cajones for that.
Wait a few years, the cast of bureaucrats changes and politicians on the hill have short memories. In time, certainly after the change of administration, it will become possible to talk seriously about shutting it down and saving some half-billion a year in costs. Especially if there is no real progress on finally getting megajoule yields, and nothing I've heard about suggests they are any closer to that than they were in 2012.
5:57 is right. No higher yields since the big high foot nonsense. I'm sure they tried and failed miserably. The only hope is to fabricate some EOS data fast and sell it to the NNSA as progress.
The high foot break even fiasco is a great example of how Livermore scientists "manage up". The greater neutron yield sounded great to management. The solution to their problems created by Lindl's disastrous NIC. Spinning it as "now we're on the right path towards ignition" was music to their ears. Even better, the lead scientist was a distinguished member and Lawrence award winner. However, the effort was a dead end. No increase in neutron yield for almost two years. The media has moved on and no longer uses the term "break even" because this confuses ignition with the measly 20 kJ they got out of the capsule. They simply say that NIF has failed to achieve ignition.
Ah, but an upgraded laser will certainly do the trick ! Just send us a few more $B, and we'll quadruple the laser power. Our codes now show that this is all we need to reach break-even. After investing so much already, how can DOE resist?
A bigger motor (laser) definitely helps at the drag strip (Sonoma). Higher overall drive, higher peak power, more power in 1st gear (the foot), and wider stickier slicks (higher target coupling) will bring home the trophies. So what's the problem ?
Nice analogy. As long as the sponsor shells out the bucks, dragsters are only limited by physics and guts. For NIF, the "sponsor" is the American taxpayer, sometimes represented by a congressman, or senator. It remains to be seen whether they want to shell out the bucks to go to the ICF Nationals.
We have at least some data points on what drive energy is "enough", and that drive blows up the laser, the building, the lab, and the city around it. Somewhere between NIF and a nuclear bomb, it becomes possible to achieve ignition, but where? Is that energy level even practical? No one knows.
The problem with NIF is that the fundamental science behind fusion (e.g. scaling) is not fully understood. Furthermore, no one in this "tight" community has the fortitude to admit it. Where are the folks like Feynman that will eventually come forward to admit it?
So many neutrons that folks in Tracy are losing weight and getting younger. Even the ground water is tasting better...,a Delorean has been sighted in the region and Chinese spies are regurary baptized at St. Michelle's. Local kids are all getting into Cal, and Stanford is again an asylum for lazy Rich women and lumbersexuals. Go Bears.. Beat $tanfurd...
21 comments:
I hear it's being shut down this year. Some guy who reads Time magazine and probably talks like Ricky Ricardo killed it off, and all the money is going to support vastly harder fusion schemes like proton-boron.
November 11, 2015 at 5:17 PM
That is also what I am hearing. Makes sense if you think about.
Self congratulatory BS on stockpile stewardship:
https://lasers.llnl.gov/news/experimental-highlights
More of this is what the future looks like.
I hear it's being shut down this year.
November 11, 2015 at 5:17 PM
It's about time. At least NNSA can get some money for scrap metal (i.e. for the NIF "parts").
Anonymous Anonymous said...
I hear it's being shut down this year.
November 11, 2015 at 5:17 PM
Anonymous Anonymous said...
November 11, 2015 at 5:17 PM
That is also what I am hearing. Makes sense if you think about.
November 11, 2015 at 7:55 PM
Are you serious. No one in NNSA/DOE is going to shut it down. That would be an admission of another DOE management fiasco -- over schedule, over budget, and failure to meet goals -- and yet another trip up the hill to catch a load of flak. No one in DOE has the cajones for that.
Wait a few years, the cast of bureaucrats changes and politicians on the hill have short memories. In time, certainly after the change of administration, it will become possible to talk seriously about shutting it down and saving some half-billion a year in costs. Especially if there is no real progress on finally getting megajoule yields, and nothing I've heard about suggests they are any closer to that than they were in 2012.
I heard they're shutting NIF down in time to film the new Star Trek series ... which is apparently all it's good for.
5:57 is right. No higher yields since the big high foot nonsense. I'm sure they tried and failed miserably. The only hope is to fabricate some EOS data fast and sell it to the NNSA as progress.
The high foot break even fiasco is a great example of how Livermore scientists "manage up". The greater neutron yield sounded great to management. The solution to their problems created by Lindl's disastrous NIC. Spinning it as "now we're on the right path towards ignition" was music to their ears. Even better, the lead scientist was a distinguished member and Lawrence award winner. However, the effort was a dead end. No increase in neutron yield for almost two years. The media has moved on and no longer uses the term "break even" because this confuses ignition with the measly 20 kJ they got out of the capsule. They simply say that NIF has failed to achieve ignition.
Ah, but an upgraded laser will certainly do the trick ! Just send us a few more $B, and we'll quadruple the laser power. Our codes now show that this is all we need to reach break-even. After investing so much already, how can DOE resist?
A bigger motor (laser) definitely helps at the drag strip (Sonoma). Higher overall drive, higher peak power, more power in 1st gear (the foot), and wider stickier slicks (higher target coupling) will bring home the trophies. So what's the problem ?
Nice analogy. As long as the sponsor shells out the bucks, dragsters are only limited by physics and guts. For NIF, the "sponsor" is the American taxpayer, sometimes represented by a congressman, or senator. It remains to be seen whether they want to shell out the bucks to go to the ICF Nationals.
We have at least some data points on what drive energy is "enough", and that drive blows up the laser, the building, the lab, and the city around it. Somewhere between NIF and a nuclear bomb, it becomes possible to achieve ignition, but where? Is that energy level even practical? No one knows.
The problem with NIF is that the fundamental science behind fusion (e.g. scaling) is not fully understood. Furthermore, no one in this "tight" community has the fortitude to admit it. Where are the folks like Feynman that will eventually come forward to admit it?
I'm doing fine. Thanks
NIF
I'm doing fine. Thanks
NIF
November 19, 2015 at 9:39 PM
What are you doing?
fine, dummy.
NIF
This thread is s science free zone.
So many neutrons that folks in Tracy are losing weight and getting younger. Even the ground water is tasting better...,a Delorean has been sighted in the region and Chinese spies are regurary baptized at St. Michelle's. Local kids are all getting into Cal, and Stanford is again an asylum for lazy Rich women and lumbersexuals. Go Bears.. Beat $tanfurd...
This thread is s science free zone.
So is NIF
Dude ! This whole BLOG is a science free zone ! Haven't you figured it out yet !
Time for a beer at the Ale House to discuss the women in Livermore !
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