The administration had previously said the increase in prices would be temporary and minimal.
Now, DOE secretary is saying "he is avoiding price predictions."
Wow! Incompetence? fear of MAGA?
Any idea?
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2 comments:
There are oil futures markets, where anyone can read off what the prices are currently expected to be in the future. Even if the war ends tomorrow, oil prices will be elevated through the end of the year and beyond as some production in the middle east was shut in and there should be increased demand by the need to replenish stockpiles, and prices may also have a geopolitical risk premium.
Of course, higher prices could spur more production in response, as well as destruction of demand, and UAE has left opec so there may be less unity in maintaining high prices going forward, that is, eventually prices could well fall by a lot. Russia would also export more oil if the Ukraine war ends. In the case of armed conflict between China and thus US, any blockade preventing them from importing oil might lead to plummeting oil prices in the beginning, although I am sure the forces allied against them would stabilize the price so the full supply would be available to the US and its allies.
It is also possible of course, that the US could restrict oil exports to keep the domestic price down as we are a net exporter, going into the midterms this might be a politically wise decision. Perhaps, low oil and gas prices here and the stability of our energy supply will aid in the reindustrialization of North America and deglobalization.
Your analysis is full of "hypotheticals" which leaves the reader hanging. Stick to one scenario and derive the most likely outcome
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