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Perhaps LLNS PR were instructed not to comment to the media on the past fusion energy or "Bringing Star Power to Earth" goals of the NIF prior to the release of the article. If the NIF budget has stablized with fresh or previously scheduled non-fusion funding streams, why would LLNS want to dredge up the failure to reach ignition at the NIF?
Sandia has published articles recently predicting 10 Gigajoules of neutron yield from their fusion scheme called MagLIF. That’s over 2 tons of TNT equivalent.
That assumes a new facility called Z next which presumably would cost billions of $$$. When is the NNSA going to get started on this important project which meets all the requirements for a fusion reactor?
Why can’t Younger and Honeywell just shut the Z machine down? Why do the NNSA and other labs entertain the BS coming from the Sandia “fusion scientists”? I know there is an EOS mission for special nuclear material but $110 million/yr is expensive and the leak risks in ABQ may not be worth it.
Sandia always makes ridiculous claims about the future success of its fusion program but inevitably fails. MagLIF is a case in point. They were predicting break even by now but only have produced 10^12 neutrons (compare to NIF’s 10^16). Attempts to improve the design have resulted in lower yields (there’s a lack of plasma physics understanding). Clearly the NNSA is trying to maintain some legacy technology out there. SNL should consider cancelling the program to expand into other, more successful, missions.
Unlike NIF, Z is not about fusion energy or ignition, and that is why it continues to exist and be very successful. It will continue to be successful even after NNSA guts funding for the NIF, as it it already moving forcefully to do.
LLNL's Mirror Fusion Test Facility, or MFTF, was an experimental magnetic confinement fusion device built using the tandem magnetic mirror design. It was, by far, the largest, most powerful and most expensive mirror machine ever constructed. Due to budget cuts, it was mothballed the day after its construction was complete, and sat unused for a year before being formally cancelled. $372 million dollars were spent on the system during its lifetime.
To 12:32, saying Z is successful twice does not make it successful. I don’t understand the logic. Because X is not about ignition, X is successful? Let X be anything: Z, Justin Bieber, a random dumpster fire, etc.
Livermore has a long, proud history of building fusion facilities that fail to produce fusion. Heck, the same can be said about many of their NTS shots.
What is 5:41 am talking about? Ever looked at the Sedan crater? I’d say that got some yield. Livermore tested hydrogen bombs on weather balloons in the ‘50s that lit the Yucca trees on fire.
MFTF-B (the tandem mirror device LLNL actually built) cost $372M but that was in 1986 dollars. Adjusted for inflation, that's $837M today, a colossal waste of money by any measure.
LLNL started designing a commercial-size mirror fusion machine even before MFTF-B was completed; the Mirror Advanced Reactor Study (MARS). To make net power at a commercial size, MARS determined that a 130 meter long solenoid would be needed. For comparison, MFTF-B was about 40 meters between ying/yang coils. At the time, MARS didn't make economic sense and if LLNL scientists already knew that 130 meters would be needed, and would be uneconomical, why continue spending money to support experiments on the 40 meter MFTF-B? Of course, so many uncertainties existed that LLNL really didn't know if 130 meters would do. The way magnetic fusion had progressed, MFTF-B most likely would have shown 130 meters to be quite insufficient. LLNL inadvertently killed their own machine with MARS.
Any motivated and well-funded group of technical people can design and build a nuclear bomb that will light trees on fire, Kim Jong Un has demonstrated that many times (minus the trees). Making useful amounts of fusion energy is MUCH, MUCH harder. But as noted above, Sandia-Z is not about fusion power, it is about radiation effects. Most of their money and shot time is dedicated to that mission, not to MagLIF that is a recent (and risky) side effort.
Father worked on Poseidon at Lockheed Sunnyvale. Some important piece of electronics or something ? A new type of multilayer PC board ? At 12 years old I remember him telling me that the warhead came from Dr. Teller in Livermore. I guess that's why I wanted to work at the modern weapons Lab ! in my adult life ! LOL
Poseidon carried the W-68 developed at LLNL. Teller did sell it to the Navy. The weapons for Trident I (W-76) and Trident II (W-88) were developed at LANL.
23 comments:
This is a story about successful fusion reactors that be used for commercial means. NIF does not quality for either.
Because it is a scam.
Perhaps LLNS PR were instructed not to comment to the media on the past fusion energy or "Bringing Star Power to Earth" goals of the NIF prior to the release of the article. If the NIF budget has stablized with fresh or previously scheduled non-fusion funding streams, why would LLNS want to dredge up the failure to reach ignition at the NIF?
Why isn’t the Sandia Z machine mentioned as an example of fusion failure?
Sandia has published articles recently predicting 10 Gigajoules of neutron yield from their fusion scheme called MagLIF. That’s over 2 tons of TNT equivalent.
That assumes a new facility called Z next which presumably would cost billions of $$$. When is the NNSA going to get started on this important project which meets all the requirements for a fusion reactor?
Why isn’t the Sandia Z machine mentioned as an example of fusion failure?
December 30, 2017 at 10:08 AM
Fusion has failed so often at Sandia that it is no longer newsworthy. (Hydra, EBFA, PBFA, etc., etc.)
The same is true at LLNL. Argus, Shiva, Nova, NIF, etc. etc. Perhaps that is why NIF was not mentioned in the article, either.
Why can’t Younger and Honeywell just shut the Z machine down? Why do the NNSA and other labs entertain the BS coming from the Sandia “fusion scientists”? I know there is an EOS mission for special nuclear material but $110 million/yr is expensive and the leak risks in ABQ may not be worth it.
Sandia always makes ridiculous claims about the future success of its fusion program but inevitably fails.
MagLIF is a case in point. They were predicting break even by now but only have produced 10^12 neutrons (compare to NIF’s 10^16). Attempts to improve the design have resulted in lower yields (there’s a lack of plasma physics understanding). Clearly the NNSA is trying to maintain some legacy technology out there. SNL should consider cancelling the program to expand into other, more successful, missions.
Unlike NIF, Z is not about fusion energy or ignition, and that is why it continues to exist and be very successful. It will continue to be successful even after NNSA guts funding for the NIF, as it it already moving forcefully to do.
The same is true at LLNL. Argus, Shiva, Nova, NIF, etc. etc. Perhaps that is why NIF was not mentioned in the article, either.
December 31, 2017 at 12:08 PM
Don't forget the Magnetic Fusion Test Facility (MFTF) at LLNL, never flipped the switch.
LLNL's Mirror Fusion Test Facility, or MFTF, was an experimental magnetic confinement fusion device built using the tandem magnetic mirror design. It was, by far, the largest, most powerful and most expensive mirror machine ever constructed. Due to budget cuts, it was mothballed the day after its construction was complete, and sat unused for a year before being formally cancelled. $372 million dollars were spent on the system during its lifetime.
To 12:32, saying Z is successful twice does not make it successful.
I don’t understand the logic. Because X is not about ignition, X is successful?
Let X be anything: Z, Justin Bieber, a random dumpster fire, etc.
Livermore has a long, proud history of building fusion facilities that fail to produce fusion. Heck, the same can be said about many of their NTS shots.
What is 5:41 am talking about? Ever looked at the Sedan crater? I’d say that got some yield.
Livermore tested hydrogen bombs on weather balloons in the ‘50s that lit the Yucca trees on fire.
MFTF-B (the tandem mirror device LLNL actually built) cost $372M but that was in 1986 dollars. Adjusted for inflation, that's $837M today, a colossal waste of money by any measure.
LLNL started designing a commercial-size mirror fusion machine even before MFTF-B was completed; the Mirror Advanced Reactor Study (MARS). To make net power at a commercial size, MARS determined that a 130 meter long solenoid would be needed. For comparison, MFTF-B was about 40 meters between ying/yang coils. At the time, MARS didn't make economic sense and if LLNL scientists already knew that 130 meters would be needed, and would be uneconomical, why continue spending money to support experiments on the 40 meter MFTF-B? Of course, so many uncertainties existed that LLNL really didn't know if 130 meters would do. The way magnetic fusion had progressed, MFTF-B most likely would have shown 130 meters to be quite insufficient. LLNL inadvertently killed their own machine with MARS.
Any motivated and well-funded group of technical people can design and build a nuclear bomb that will light trees on fire, Kim Jong Un has demonstrated that many times (minus the trees). Making useful amounts of fusion energy is MUCH, MUCH harder. But as noted above, Sandia-Z is not about fusion power, it is about radiation effects. Most of their money and shot time is dedicated to that mission, not to MagLIF that is a recent (and risky) side effort.
Didn't Livermore develop and test the warheads for both Poseidon and Trident submarine launch ICBM's ?
W76
W88
Both from LANL
9:02 PM doesn't know the whole history. I think classification prevents disclosing the whole story. 7:03 PM is on the right path.
Classification has nothing to do with it. 9:02 pm is absolutely correct.
Father worked on Poseidon at Lockheed Sunnyvale. Some important piece of electronics or something ? A new type of multilayer PC board ? At 12 years old I remember him telling me that the warhead came from Dr. Teller in Livermore. I guess that's why I wanted to work at the modern weapons Lab ! in my adult life ! LOL
Poseidon carried the W-68 developed at LLNL. Teller did sell it to the Navy. The weapons for Trident I (W-76) and Trident II (W-88) were developed at LANL.
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