Tuesday, March 31, 2020
Is anyone comprehending this new reality?
Clearly we’re not going see 20% yearly increases in the NNSA budget. I suspect the pit facility plans are going to be put on hold. Maybe we’ll have to reduce the nuclear Triad to only one system, like submarine-launched missiles. There are some big choices that are going to have to made because of our drastic reduction in GDP and tax base. Is anyone comprehending this new reality?
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I agree there are couple of issues at hand. The first one is going to be huge economic hit that the US will take, we will need to cut. NW are not that relevant in modern age and cost way too much. The other is the realization that the big threats to the US like pandemics cannot be delt with by NW. Major cuts may be the only way to go forward.
I wish there were some reasonable voices when it comes to the stockpile and NW complex. Maintaining the Triad makes little sense, especially the ground based arm. Pit remanufacture also makes no sense given the original JASON report concluded no significant aging in 150 years (recent Physics Today article on that including all the costly programs that now must be in doubt):
https://physicstoday.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/PT.3.4406
No armchair predictions are worth squat. A lot is still to happen. Buckle your seatbelts.
Reasonable to expect mission at NNSA national laboratories will be redirected. Toward "science that matters" to quote a previous LANL director.
Put. All. These. Scientists. To. Good. Use.
Why do we have or need nuclear weapons anymore, the cold war is long over. This money could have been used to fight pandemics.
3/31/2020 4:14 PM
Just a tad bitter are we now.
"Why do we have or need nuclear weapons anymore,"
China.
Hey 12:52 AM, is quoting the JASONs and a Physics Today article being “bitter”? Try to come up with intellectual arguments, not dismissive statements that are cliches.
"Is anyone comprehending this new reality?
Clearly we’re not going see 20% yearly increases in the NNSA budget. I suspect the pit facility plans are going to be put on hold. Maybe we’ll have to reduce the nuclear Triad to only one system, like submarine-launched missiles. There are some big choices that are going to have to made because of our drastic reduction in GDP and tax base. Is anyone comprehending this new reality?"
It is exactly the the opposite to what you are saying. Many in the military have been pushing for the modernization of our arsenal in light of the rise of China as a threat. With the recent events it is becoming more clear that we headed toward a new cold war. In light of this not only will you see 20% increase but maybe even more of an increase. This talk is not just random rumors but has been going on for some time. One thing for absolutely certain is that pit facility plans are going to continue. The TRIAD is not going anywhere any time soon. We have generally stayed away from space based NW but if China goes in that direction we can expect a fourth arm. You may not like but NNSA is going to be very busy in the coming years.
8:29 You are spot on. Tens of thousands of the world’s finest scientists are wasting away doing virtually nothing at NNSA run Labs. The bureaucracy and regulatory environs are stifling; the management is clueless and insular; the missions are antiquated and bloated beyond belief; and the taxpayer is being fleeced.
8:29 You are spot on. Tens of thousands of the world’s finest scientists are wasting away doing virtually nothing at NNSA run Labs. The bureaucracy and regulatory environs are stifling; the management is clueless and insular; the missions are antiquated and bloated beyond belief; and the taxpayer is being fleeced.
4/01/2020 12:51 PM
How would you know any of this? Just curious if you have any idea what "tens of thousands" of scientists are actually doing. You know even the open internet all you have to do is type in publications and affiliation LANL, LLNL and Sandia and you will get some idea of just some of what is going on. Of course you will say "publications" is not something "scientists" do. Sure buddy...sure. If you say that you should not be postings. Either you do not know what the hell you are talking about or you will do this and admit you are wrong. These are the only two options. So either put up or shut up. Just admit who you are since and that you are extremely bitter, bitter enough to make up random crap. Sorry pall you will get pwnd every time you do this.
You’re right 9:58. Budgetary decisions are made by the Generals, not Congress. If they perceive a threat, say from China, Mongolia, Luxembourg, etc, then the military budget is automatically increased. This amount of increase is determined by the Military and is proportional to the level of threat that the Generals personally feel. This is why there will soon be a “fourth arm” of the triad like you said. A General woke up today with a bad feeling about China, contacted the Pentagon during breakfast, and that arm was created in the early afternoon.
4/01/2020 12:51 PM should read and ponder 4/01/2020 9:58 AM, because he speaks truth.
You’re right 9:58. Budgetary decisions are made by the Generals, not Congress.
Budgetary decisions are influenced by Generals and the intelligence agencies. Despite what you may think there are plenty of "classified" briefings given to the house and the Senate. Hence the budget increase and hence the continued increase. You may not like it but money will not only continue to flow to LANL, LLNL and Sandia but it is going to increase. Your personal hatred toward LANL because of perceived slights is irrelevant to the situation. Thanks for playing.
Hi 7:56. Never worked for LANL. Only love and respect for my friends up on the hill. Been in plenty of briefings. Trying to have a discussion about charging priorities in this time of crisis.
4:18 lets play a little game, shall we. I’ll look up “publications”, and you look up, “patents”. I think you’ll rapidly discover two things. First the NNSA Labs are far behind their peers at a Google, IBM, and the like, and second, you’ve had too much Kool Aid. Even in the publication domain most 2nd rate universities publish more on a per-capita basis (counting only professionals of course). Enjoy your ivory tower. It’s coming crashing down.
8:29 You are spot on. Tens of thousands of the world’s finest scientists are wasting away doing virtually nothing at NNSA run Labs. The bureaucracy and regulatory environs are stifling; the management is clueless and insular; the missions are antiquated and bloated beyond belief; and the taxpayer is being fleeced.
4/01/2020 12:51 PM
I have even worse news for you. There are not ten of thousands of the world’s finest scientists at the NNSA. There maybe a handful or good scientists and has significantly decreased in numbers in the last ten years. So yes, we have a bunch of average scientists and engineers wasting away doing nothing.
. First the NNSA Labs are far behind their peers at a Google, IBM, and the like, and second, you’ve had too much Kool Aid
How are Google, IBM and like peers to NNSA labs? That makes now sense at all. You could say the same bout Havard, Princeton and Berkley. The NNSA labs are labs, they are not for profit companies, it makes no sense to compare the two. The DOE, NNSA,NSF, NIH labs do the basic science, it filters up to the companies like Google, IBM and and so on. Get a clue about how the whole scientific enterprise works before saying you're nonsense. Just saying since you like like such a fool.
" Even in the publication domain most 2nd rate universities publish more on a per-capita basis (counting only professionals of course)"
Nope not even close we went over all this a few years back with that last time you put this BE out. If you look at people doing open science at the NNSA labs it is near the top 15 universities in the US.. This also figures in nicely with all the position that the postdocs and staff members get every year. Again this wall documented before in case you forgot. I would also add that much of the classified work which is not published is still cutting edge when some of it eventually gets out. It is interesting when you say per-capita like you have any idea what its means.
"Enjoy your ivory tower. It’s coming crashing down."
You have said this every year since what 2010? How has that prediction worked out for you? Just look at you past recored and you you may figure how full of it you have been . The labs now have more money, more science and more impact than ever before and yes the labs will be getting even more fuddling and doing even more science. You are just a very bitter person with an axe to grind and who refuses to face reality.
"So yes, we have a bunch of average scientists and engineers wasting away doing nothing.
4/02/2020 11:34 AM"
How do you come to such a conclusion? The numbers show that you are wrong on this. Do we need to go through this yet again? Take LANL, LLNL or Sandia, count the number of people doing just open science, count the publications, compare to a university or Office of Science lab. Hmmm what would you find. Also using the all of the labs is bizarre comparison since so much of the work is classified, but than all I have to say is look at the money going into the lab, someone thinks they are doing very good work, in fact I know for sure that there are a great many and this is included by all sorts of people on external teams that do something called a "review". If you ever worked at the labs as a "scientists" you would know about these reviews. The fact that you don't might mean that you have a rather over inflated opinion of yourself and the role that you think you may have played at the lab.
Is anyone comprehending this new reality?
Could be some opportunities for money.
Is anyone comprehending this new reality?
Apparently, some comprehend it differently than you do.
Hey, 5:18, apparently you can make sarcastic zero-content comments.
Hey, 5:18, apparently you can make sarcastic zero-content comments.
4/04/2020 6:03 PM
The poster gave a hint, take it if you get it, if not than I agree it is a zero-content comment. Think 2% dead, 30% drop in the stock market...hmm something does not add up. Ok you win, the poster had nothing to add.
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