Nuclear testing is very, vary bad:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2020/05/29/donald-trumps-nuke-testing-idea-is-catastrophically-stupid/#680c1fa05c11
Note how the “experts” have perfect knowledge of other nations stockpiles. None of them have ever worked in the US nuclear weapons complex let alone the complexes of the highly secretive countries on which they speculate about.
33 comments:
All the standard arguments that are good, but nothing new is offered. On other hand the author never gives the any argument why testing might be good. (1) It could very useful to understating how things are aging. (2) It could remind everyone we have them and they work. Now whether it is worth the risk is another question but there are some reasons for testing.
Most people I know in the simulation and engineering teams believe testing is ultimately necessary. Simulation can reduce the amount of testing but the inputs to simulation need to be refreshed.
The best reason for testing is training people how to test and do diagnostics. No one knows that anymore.
Testing under Trump would be an act of racial violence against the world and the people of America.
The “experts” cited in the article don’t know squat. They are political sponges. They make their living by getting rich people to support their cause. So an article like this requires them to state this position. And to be completely fair, 06/01 at 7:08 PM failed a basic understanding about nuclear weapons. They don’t discriminate. They provide equal opportunity when it comes to death and destruction.
They don’t discriminate. They provide equal opportunity when it comes to death and destruction.
6/01/2020 9:13 PM
Sure the weapons don't discriminate but the the people that use them will. Is there any doubt that if the weapons are used it will be used against minority groups or the socially disadvantaged people or they will be the ones who suffered the most? Just look at the history of how they are used.
9:13 PM is dead on. That’s why I posted the article. These experts and their think tanks pretend to have perfect knowledge of the US stockpile and those of other countries. They are parasites.
6/02/2020 7:59 AM
Russians are "minority groups" in Russia? Chinese are "minority groups" in China? North Koreans are "minority groups" in North Korea? Your claim is just extremely silly. "The history of how they are used"?? Only twice, on a country that killed or wounded over 350,000 US soldiers in WWII, and that use actually saved many times that number by preventing the invasion of Japan.
I am an expert in the designs for nuclear testing. The ban on testing should have hindered if not stopped the development of newer types of designs for the nation's stockpile. But I know the temptations to do new things, particularly when the designs operate so well on the codes. I also know that the full design codes should not be trusted without tests of a variety of kinds. So if the labs allowed an untested complete redesign into the stockpile, they are STUPID. Further, if that is used to justify more testing, they are even STUPIDER!
"So if the labs allowed.." tells me you are no "expert." Plus, a real expert would never say that. Poseur. Gotcha.
" So if the labs allowed an untested complete redesign into the stockpile, they are STUPID. Further, if that is used to justify more testing, they are even STUPIDER!"
I cannot follow your logic on this. Are you saying it would be stupid go make a new design with testing? But, if they need to do new design and argue for testing that is even stupider?
Someone should define what is meant by a nuclear test. Is it
1. full yield?
2. limited to 150 kt by the Threshold Test Ban Treaty?
3. 100 tons?
4. 5 tons?
5. 4 pounds?
There are different pros and cons at each level. Pick your poison.
Let me be clear that the complete redesign of a weapon for stockpile without testing it is what is STUPID. Since we are not testing, it is unprofessional to propose placing such a design in the stockpile. To develop such a design to force the need to test is completely stupid because such an action will precipitate unkwown consequences outside the technical sphere.
6/04/2020 10:25 AM
Who, exactly, is proposing a "complete redesign" of a weapons system? If you are "an expert in the designs for nuclear testing" (which I note carefully avoids saying you are a weapon designer), you would know there are no "complete redesign" proposals for any funding whatever. I conclude you have no real idea what you are talking about.
>Someone should define what is meant by a nuclear test.
57 megatons
"To develop such a design to force the need to test is completely stupid because such an action will precipitate unkwown consequences outside the technical sphere."
How would you "force a design".
How would you "force a design".
6/04/2020 6:34 PM
MCs
This would be a "political stunt" and not a scientific test to learn something about an existing system and aid in the design of a new system. It would take several years to be ready to do a full test where data is collected during the shot - specifically due to the need to design and build the diagnostic instruments based on what data is desired to be collected. We haven't built down hole instruments for collecting usable data since the late 1980 and early 1990s - heck most of the engineers and technicians who specialized in this sort of instrumentation have retired or left the Lab. Even the facilities at LLNL (B251, etc) that supported testing science and engineering are gone - most have forgotten that whole of B132 north was intended to support testing and has been completely repurposed for non-nuclear weapon science and research.
Here's an insightful podcast on the subject of resuming testing. Dr. Lewis even mentions his discussions with Bruce Goodwin on the issue a few years ago. And if you post any responses to this specific podcast after listening to it, keep DOE information Policy Gen-16 in mind.
https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1209485/renewed-nuclear-testing-in-the-u-s/
MCs
6/04/2020 9:14 PM
Wrong, maybe COC, but not MCs, possibly OMs as well. In any case you are confused.
I say that the NNSA labs should threaten a complex wide walkout in response to Trump talking about a test. It would send a powerfull message.
In any case some kind complex wide gesture could also be made by the NNSA workers to show support for the demonstrations across the nation. Many universities or professional organizations are urging different activities including sick outs/walk outs and so on. Perhaps the town or Livermore or Los Alamos could have some lab wide walkouts. Also we they could take a stance at the local police force by saying that that the labs will not do any business or allow local police on site or anywhere near the labs. If you do nothing you are part of the problem. On the individual level you could start making lists of names of so called friends, coworkers and neighbors who are perpetuating systemic racism and bigotry by direct actions or by not acknowledging the problem. These lists can be made public and appropriate actions could be taken. If these are family members make sure your children or grandchildren never see them again, make sure they know they will never be welcome in your house. If these are friends make sure their bosses know what you found. If these are professional colleagues make sure that you do what it takes so they will never advance or be thrown out of the profession. If these are teachers make sure the never teach again, and so on. You are part of the solution or part of the problem.
How would you "force a design".
6/04/2020 6:34 PM
He didn't say "force a design," he said "force a test," which a "complete redesign" would do.
7:45 This "insightful" podcast is nothing more than some random, ill-informed, stream of consciousness nonsense mixed with name-dropping of people like Bruce Goodwin who are themselves on the fringe of any sort of policy discussions.
Scooby stealth deletions just because he doesn't like the comment. Again. WTF, Scooby? You claim to be fair, but you are hyper-partisan. Your stifling true exchange of ideas is stifling this blog, which you claim to care about. You have become a poor caricature of yourself. What do you think you are accomplishing by censoring posts that do not violate your blog rules, but violate your idea of correct politics? I used to care a great deal what happened to LLNL and LANL, but you are killing that. Is that what you want?
Hey complainer!
I cannot remember every comment I deleted but I can assure you it violated the posted rules. I do no eish to engage in a debate with you on your accusation. You are and only you are, responsible for feeling the death of your interest in llnl/lanl.
6/05/2020 3:06 PM
This was posted on June 5, it is probably a joke or a troll, however the NYT just ran a Op-Ed saying you need to stop contact or disconnect with family or friends who are not on board with the current protests.
If you are curious about who else practices this tactic all you have to look religious cults in fact Scientology even has a term for this called "disconnecting". For you enlightened people the love the NYT so much I challenge you find some old issues from 1989 or so (some articles are online), and compare that to any issue this week and you will see a startleing change in journalists ethics, basic logic, and transparent agenda. If you watch CNN we are getting close to North Korea/Soviet Union style propaganda. You have a guy on live for CNN saying the riots are completely peaceful while a building burns in the background. I have never seen this level of media bias before in my lifetime in the US. Sure people have claimed many of these media outlets are left leaning since the 50's but these are now just like low level propaganda. Some of my friends from the former eastern block counties said the news is like what you would see in the 70s and 80s from Russia. In other words it is so absurd that it not meant to be something that the reader/viewer is actually suppose to believe. It is so outrageous it is meant to show the people who is in charge. In other words the media or whoever is saying, "We are reality we can say anything we want, you don't have to believe you just have to obey". Did some AI, take over, did the Chinese actually win some secret cyber WWIII? To top it off there is a deliberate purge of any kind any kind of alternative or independent news, in complete violation of the ideals of the first amendment. Maybe the aliens took over like on that old TV show V. Perhaps Anderson Cooper is some sort of creature of monster. I am joking but but something odd is going on with much of the MSM, it is no longer really news and most people know this yet nothing is done. By the way I have always leaned bit left, I liked Clinton and thought Obama was ok. I did not like any of the Bushes so I am not some right wing Christian zealot and even I sense something is deeply wrong.
Most LANL scientists, Engineers, and modelers in the weapons program I speak with support testing.
7:07 Fortunately, few of them are involved in any way with setting policy. If they were, they would think less about their broken computer simulations and more about the real world implications of their little sandbox. Either nuclear testing or human beings will go the way of the dinosaurs.
Most LANL scientists, Engineers, and modelers in the weapons program I speak with support testing.
6/07/2020 7:07 AM
Because they know how much thinner their confidence in the ageing stockpile grows every year without any kind of confirmatory test.
The foundation of science is experiment. Science without experimental confirmation is religion. Do you want to believe your nukes work or do you want to know for certain that they work?
Do you want to believe your nukes work or do you want to know for certain that they work?
6/10/2020 8:10 PM
... or that they don't, as the case may be.
"Do you want to believe your nukes work or do you want to know for certain that they work?"
Right now in probably the most important point in US history I am not concerned about our Nukes now should you be. Personally I would feel better knowing they do not work if Trump is in charge. I really hoped they did work when Obama was in charge. I wish there was a magic switch we could turn on in case of a Dictator or a racists came into office.
The only thing I want to believe is that come Nov this nightmare will be over. When that happens I can talk to my European friends again, I can travel outside of the United States without being mocked. I can think I am from a civilized nation again. Sure I have been part of the resistance but have I done enough? What I find so scary is that 1/3 of people voted for Trump. I don't know any and I cannot imagine anyone I would know could have voted for him since they all have college and postgraduate degrees. But I worry that there might be some amongst them. I look for signs or clues but they all seem so normal. Even when Trump is gone these same 1/3 or 1/4 of the people will still be out there, and who knows what the are going to do.
" I can travel outside of the United States without being mocked."
6/15/2020 8:49 AM
You don't have to travel to be mocked, just keep posting here!
Post a Comment