Sobering assessment of the near term potential nuclear use by Russia in its Ukraine war and how it will escalate from tactical nuclear exchanges to strategic nuclear city busters.
https://warontherocks.com/2022/10/the-end-of-the-world-is-nigh/
Sobering assessment of the near term potential nuclear use by Russia in its Ukraine war and how it will escalate from tactical nuclear exchanges to strategic nuclear city busters.
36 comments:
Ok time for some crazy conspiracy theories. Please do not say, "that sounds crazy!!!" That is the point of a crazy conspiracy theory.
The problem some of these seem possible.
(1) The elite have plenty of bunkers like all the ones in New Zealand. Many elites think there are way too many people and in order to save the climate we need some kind of radical event as Covid did not do it but nukes will. Others could think that only by severally damaging the west could a real great reset be implemented from ashes of nuclear war where nation states are no longer a thing. In other words there are many upsides to a large scale nuclear war for people who can survive it.
(2) If we could defeat Russia it would be an economic boom for all its resources and land mass. Perhaps the Russian nukes will not work and we simply pushing Putin to try one out and if it is a dude than we we attack and the land is ours!!!!!!
(3) This is really about China, we need to get Russia out the way and than we can attack China and win but we only have a few years to do this before they become too strong. It is worth the risk.
(4) It is just a giant system out of anyones real controll and now that the wheels are in motion nothing can stop it. Russia will not stop until they take Ukraine and we will not let them take Ukraine. We have an nuclear exchange but because both sides have reduced the number of bombs so much it will only kill 150 million and we win. This is the one highlghited in the the original posting but I added we win in the end.
(5) We keep pushing until Russians take Putin out, give up Ukraine. At that point we must also ask for free gas, oil, ports, and other goodies even some kind disarmament treaty with Russia. Major victory for the west. Only problem is China may say we get half of Russia as well.
(6) Ukraine simply falls apart in the Winter Putin gets big chunks of land and Germany says we are with Russians so please give us gas, and the EU and Nato fall apart.
(7) Republicans win in 2022, impeach Biden, America goes into full civil war and denigrates and cannot respond to Russia when in nukes Ukraine.
https://warontherocks.com/2022/10/the-end-of-the-world-is-nigh/
I suspect this is some kind Russian troll farm or Russian propoganda site. I thought we learned our lesson 2016 that these non-credible online or independent news sites are actually controlled by foreign actors. That is why you should only stick with analysis from certified news sources not some online group of non-journalists. I think Biden really needs to crackdown on this so called "independent news". It is dangerous, it is lies and it is propaganda and with journalistic standards we simply cannot trust this
The best daily coverage of the tactical side of Russia's war in Ukraine is being done by the Institute for the Study of War at https://understandingwar.org and in Michael Kofman's podcast by War on the Rocks at https://warontherocks.com/category/podcasts/war-on-the-rocks/
The best daily coverage of the tactical side of Russia's war in Ukraine is being done by the Institute for the Study of War at https://understandingwar.org and in Michael Kofman's podcast by War on the Rocks at https://warontherocks.com/category/podcasts/war-on-the-rocks/
10/20/2022 5:39 AM
Not an official news site so it cannot be trusted and should be shut down. You are not a journalist or an expert on news so you should be just gong to the internet and watching random things that are not vetted. This is how fake news spreads.
10/19/2022 11:08 PM. From their website and you can read the bio of everyone posting articles on it....
War on the Rocks is a platform for analysis and debate on strategy, defense, and foreign affairs. It features articles and podcasts produced by an array of writers with deep experience in these matters: top notch scholars who study war, those who have served or worked in war zones, and more than a few who have done it all.
This is what sets us apart from other publications: experience.
Among our regular contributors are people who have worked on every continent in the world. They have commanded ships, bargained with militias, led patrols, managed alliances, called for fires, and negotiated treaties. They include former diplomats, officers, NCOs, intelligence professionals, and some of the most reputable scholars in the world studying war and international politics. Our contributors include citizens of countries from around the world, members of all political parties and none. But they all converge on that one guiding principle for our project: experience.
We seek to teach people how to think about the world, rather than what to think about it. We do not impose conclusions on our authors or our readers. We reason forward to find answers, not backward from predetermined beliefs. We believe in the centrality of fear, honor, and interest as drivers of inter-state affairs. Politics is power. À la Morgenthau, we understand power as “anything that establishes and maintains the power of man over man …. from physical violence to the most subtle psychological ties by which one mind controls another.” While armed force or the threat thereof is often central to our analyses, our writers also engage deeply with ideas and social control as mechanisms for power. No topic is off limits.
10/19/2022 11:08 PM
The piece was posted on War On the Rocks by Jeremy Shapiro who is the director of research at the European Council on Foreign Relations and a non-resident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. He served in the U.S. State Department from 2009 to 2013. There he was a member of the U.S. State Department’s policy planning staff, where he advised the secretary of state on U.S. policy in North Africa and the Levant. He was also the senior advisor to Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, providing strategic guidance on a wide variety of U.S.-European foreign policy issues.
#5 actually makes sense. The rest is just garbage.
#5 actually makes sense. The rest is just garbage.
10/20/2022 5:12 PM
#5 is just a varient of #3.
"The piece was posted on War On the Rocks by Jeremy Shapiro"
I have heard the name Shapiro before?....
Oh yes, Ben Shapiro a notorious hard right extremest who promotes fascisim.
Need a citation on this? I am dropping laser guided fact bombs on you/them and you need to look no further but ya be blew ups with the truths one facts's shaprnall!!!
https://tripod.domains.trincoll.edu/opinion/ben-shapiro-and-fascism-free-speech-isnt-free/
https://es-la.facebook.com/114923591887865/posts/is-ben-shapiro-a-nazi-according-to-an-insider-at-google-ben-is-a-covert-nazi-ben/2393286677384867/WLS-AM 890
25 de junio de 2019 ·
Is Ben Shapiro a Nazi? According to an insider at Google, Ben is a covert Nazi. Ben explains how this is very clever of him to do
https://www.quora.com/Is-Ben-Shapiro-a-fascist
Dammmmm.
Ok now back to the "War against Rocks "is fake news.
Not an official news site so it cannot be trusted and should be shut down. You are not a journalist or an expert on news so you should be just gong to the internet and watching random things that are not vetted. This is how fake news spreads.
10/20/2022 9:05 AM
So you're not a fan of free speech, huh? Just what is an "official news site?" Government approved? Anything you don't trust "should be shut down"? Who is supposed to be doing the "vetting"? You sound like a Trumpist autocrat. Hint: Smart people know how to find truth. Autocrats think dumb people should only be fed "approved" (by them) information.
So you're not a fan of free speech, huh? Just what is an "official news site?" Government approved? Anything you don't trust "should be shut down"? Who is supposed to be doing the "vetting"? You sound like a Trumpist autocrat. Hint: Smart people know how to find truth. Autocrats think dumb people should only be fed "approved" (by them) information.
10/21/2022 5:15 PM
Excuse me but I am absolutely against Trump, but you have to realize that our so called tolerance of "free speech" at all costs allowed this autocrat to be elected. I am a fan of free speech as long as it done by adults. Let us be honest 85 million Americans just proved that they cannot make rational decisions and will easily fall prey to fake news and disinformation. As you said it yourself "smart people know how find the truth" but we have to be honest that dumb people will easily fall prey to fake news. Before the internet you had some buffers to slow down the spread of information, dumb people also deferred more to smart people. Now the internet allows fake or real news to spread. We can still have free speech but we have to make some rules about fake news and online information which means we need to have vetted official news media. I fear for our freedom if we allow Musk to take over twitter which leads to people like Trump, West, Joe Rogan or Ben Shapiro to spew out whatever stuff that dumb people will believe. We made some progress by forcing Alex Jones to pay one billion and now he he is being sued for 2.75 Trillion and we need to sue more and more of these people, but yes we need to start taking steps against ake news. The war on the rocks site may sound like a good idea but just looking at it they a saying some things that sound like pro Russian propoganda to me.
10/19/2022 10:57 PM]
Sounds crazy, Putin is corned rat who knows he is losing. After Trump lost Putin panicked because he knew we would go after him next.
6:22 The thing is, if “85,000,000” people vote for something, or somebody, and that vote represents a plurality, whether you like it or not, then (with an “e”) it becomes reality in a representative Democracy. You live in a dream world of your own creation.
6:22 The thing is, if “85,000,000” people vote for something, or somebody, and that vote represents a plurality, whether you like it or not, then (with an “e”) it becomes reality in a representative Democracy. You live in a dream world of your own creation.
10/22/2022 10:29 AM
Again the age of the internet one has to ask if old fashion democracy can be maintained if it allows over and over again for destructive forces that are bad for society. I am not saying we need to get rid of democracy, those 85 million people can still vote but we need some way to make sure they get reliable and truthful information, if that means much stronger control over news media, social media than so be it. The alternative is going to a fascist hell like the 4 years under Trump or even worse. We need to be grown ups and realize that the old way of doing things is not going to work.
10/21/2022 6:22 PM
You want to eliminate what you call "fake news" because less-than-intelligent people might "fall prey" to it. Your autocracy is showing. Who determines what is "fake"? What gives you the right to control what they see or hear? You say "I fear for our freedom" but you are willing to take that of others away because they are less intelligent and you want to protect them. You keep saying what "we" should do as if you expect to be part of the actions restricting other people. You are part of the problem. You aren't part of the "we" encompassed in our representative democratic republic. "We" don't have to listen to the likes of you.
"You want to eliminate what you call "fake news" because less-than-intelligent people might "fall prey" to it."
Fine I can take back my comment that only dumb fall prey to fake news because anybody can be a victim of fake news even the most intelligent, it simply depends on how sophisticated it is. The fact is fake news is a danger to freedom and democracy and we better do something about. We need to figure out some way to identify it and block it. You have to be honest and admit that almost all the fake news is coming from the right and why so many regular conservatives have now converted to extremest. If you look at polls a large fraction of Republicans do not believe that Jan 6 was a insurrection/coup designed to topple our government and install a Trump dictator. If you believe that you are not a pro-democracy person but a authoritarian or in Trumps case a fascists. How scary is that , that came about by fake news that radicalized 60 millions or more people. By random luck we did not lose the US on Jan 6, but we could lose in Nov or 2024 because we did tackle fake news. I am for more government controll or intervention but I am no autocrat I think we need to grow up and realize how close we are to become something akin to Nazi Germany 1939 because we are adhering to rules of free speech. Free speech only works if everyone agrees on it, we have 60 to 85 million people who want to get rid of the US and the constitution if they get power. They do not believe in free speech so why should we?
I say we should ask every person these two questions.
(1) Is Biden the legitimate President of the United States.
(2) Was Jan 6th and insurrection to overthrow the government.
If they say no to either one of these, these loose the right to vote right there. These are not opinions, saying no to anyone of these
is like yelling fire in a theater. Again if they do adhere to the free speech we should not either. They broke the contract we are obliged to
honor their rights.
10/23/2022 10:41 AM
Ok, you are now confirming that you don't believe in personal freedom at all, the Bill of Rights is optional to you, and you are willing to control what people see and hear if you don't agree with it. Are you by any chance a Russian or Chinese troll? If not, you are a disgrace to this country and should have stayed awake in civics class. Get a copy of the Constitution and read it. If you are up to it, read the Federalist Papers as well. You don't understand the concept of a free federalist democracy. You and Trump belong together where he is going.
Per 10:41, “…how close we are to become[sic] something akin to Nazi Germany 1939 because we are adhering to rules of free speech.”
A shocking equivocation that, we’re it not for the consistently strident delivery, would be laughable. Please get help.
A shocking equivocation that, we’re it not for the consistently strident delivery, would be laughable. Please get help.
You realize that that’s our blog host don’t you?
You realize that that’s our blog host don’t you?
10/23/2022 7:51 PM
How does that work? Scooby has pretty clear set of rules, the posters can say some pretty off the wall stuff but if they are in bounds Scooby lets it go. Maybe I am missing something.
You and Trump belong together where he is going.
10/23/2022 5:15 PM
I am trying to save the US from Trump. Free speech without the responsibility gave us Trump. I was all for the who free speech thing up until 2016 when Trump won via fake news. Again I am not about getting rid of free speech I am about getting rid of fake news.
I am not about getting rid of free speech I am about getting rid of fake news.
10/24/2022 12:21 AM
And yet somehow you can't understand that "getting rid of fake news" is restricting what people can say, i.e. freedom of speech. Please don't try to protect me from bad people who say false things. I am an adult and I can do that for myself. You patronize and insult me, but you can't understand that either. You just want to shut down speech you don't agree with.
" I am an adult and I can do that for myself. You patronize and insult me, but you can't understand that either. You just want to shut down speech you don't agree with."
I will no longer speak to you or consider your points until you pass this purity test.
(1) Is Biden the legitimate President of the United States.
(2) Was Jan 6th and insurrection to overthrow the government.
Think hard before you reply.
Aren't there a lot of books out now dealing with January 6th as well as possible election irregularities, which came out because of freedom of speech? You can find them on Amazon for example.
And of course, there are alternate right-wing news sources and social media that exist because of freedom of speech, we also have access to foreign news expressing various points of view, as well as foreign government propaganda.
In reference to that, it seems most likely that over time the historical record will reflect a true version of events, whatever the truth may be, especially in regard to factual information.
10/24/2022 6:13 PM
Yes, and no. Jan. 6 was an attempt (poorly thought out and carried out) to overturn the result of one presidential election, which would have been summarily tossed out by state and federal courts. In no way was it an attempt to "overthrow the government," which consists of three co-equal branches, two of which were not threatened in the least. Get a grip on your paranoia.
Dear poster 10/25/2022 7:50 AM first you need to address these points before any will address your point. Deal
(1) Is Biden the legitimate President of the United States.
(2) Was Jan 6th and insurrection to overthrow the government.
Think hard before you reply.
You also have to consider that in the future there will most likely be a super-intelligent AI that has 100% control over the entire Earth. Surely it will construct a very reliable historical narrative through detailed examination and reconstruction of all available human records and artifacts on the planet. Naturally with brain-computer interfaces or the metaverse all human memories may in principle be accessible to it. I'm sure also by the way, most currently encrypted records will be recovered by quantum computing, as well as developments in mathematics, or other post-quantum computing technologies it will develop. Doing all of this rather completely will represent a tiny effort for it, yet we can imagine a vast research effort devoted to not missing any detail whatsoever. In any case, this historical effort would be carried out with incredible subtlety and depth and insights not possible to humans. Privacy and property rights will not be a concern for it or us either since it already controls and records basically everything.
This scenario was I believe, the basis of the fictional Borg by the way, but it could become reality quite soon.
"Yes, and no. Jan. 6 was an attempt (poorly thought out and carried out) to overturn the result of one presidential election, which would have been summarily tossed out by state and federal courts. In no way was it an attempt to "overthrow the government," which consists of three co-equal branches, two of which were not threatened in the least. Get a grip on your paranoia.
10/25/2022 5:16 PM"
You said no to part 2, so there is no point discussing further anything with some one like you . I am not going to engage in conversation with anyone that utterly unhinged. I sure hope you do not no or ever worked at a national lab. I am always shocked by people saying this, I know that millions must believe this but still it is shocking. You should lean some history about the Reichstag fire or the 1973 Chile Coup d'etat
I also think, questions (1) and (2) are not very well defined, as they contain rather vague terminology and phrasing. Question (1) about legitimacy for example, ignores the fact that Biden is actually president. There could also be questions for example, about whether Trump was a legitimate president, due to Russian interference, but they were both duly elected. Question (2) likewise has vague and emotional wording, and it is already known the people present on January 6th did not have a single intent, motivation, or set of political views. It could be an important question about Trump's direct involvement, but he was already impeached for inciting an insurrection and found not guilty. Perhaps as more information arises, it will change the views many people hold, one way or the other. It would seem to be based on polling that he has many supporters at present, and may be even more popular than he was during much of his presidency.
10/25/2022 10:22 PM
1) Yes, indisputably.
2) No. It was attempt to overthrow the 2020 presidential election result. Not the US government. There are many checks and balances built into the Constitution to avert and prevent such a scheme. The system, as it is, worked in this case, but needs to be strengthened, which is why it is unconscionable that Congress has not passed the Electoral Count Act reform, instead letting it languor while decrying the very situation reform would be designed to prevent.
This scenario was I believe, the basis of the fictional Borg by the way, but it could become reality quite soon.
10/25/2022 11:11 PM
Heh. Lots of things "could" happen.
The only question about "legitimacy" regarding the election would be if solid evidence arose Biden himself were involved in or aware of illegal activity to promote or ensure his victory. In that case he would resign as Nixon did, and Kamala would become president. No doubt at that point she would be impeached, and there would be a trial to see if she was also involved. Note there is zero evidence any of this will happen, and Biden seems to of good character. Cheating or election interference by unrelated parties no matter how vast, is not an impeachable offense.
Naturally, if aliens are visiting the earth in UFO's they would very likely have already introduced AI systems into our networks, this would make sense whether the aliens are benevolent, evil, or just here to study us. If this has already happened, then they may be guiding events for their purposes, I would think, and even subverting our elections and democratic processes, with the possible goal of attaining 100% control over the entire Earth before another AI can do so. Once they have that, the Earth and its inhabitants will be a plaything for them to do as they wish. It may be a wonderful future as opposed to the one in which humans retain control and destroy everything.
Of course, if aliens or AI interfered in our election, Biden would still be the duly elected (and legitimate) president as long as he was not part of this effort. One might even assume that they would interfere again, putting in an illegitimate president. They could have goals antithetical to American ideals, or indeed human ethics in general, and might pursue programs to reduce the human population, or perform medical experiments and eugenics, or more generally end civilization. These things could still of course, be in our long-term interest as opposed to any future in which they do not act. For example, ending civilization while preserving the human species might be preferable to a future humans would create where we become extinct.
10/26/2022 7:45 PM
I was thinking this was nuts but maybe you are on to something? Things are pretty weird right now. You have the left who thinks the
conservatives are racists fascists and the right thinks the left are authoritarian Marxist who want to get rid of capitalism and do away with any kind of freedom. It seems a little too contrived like somthing is behind it.
Of course, we could be living in a simulation instead -- some sort of Metaverse built by a previous society, a sort of immersive video game. In this case, any electoral outcomes, and events in general, may be determined by game creators, in fact all of our free will may be an illusion as well.
More generally the universe could have been created by a supreme all-knowing power, which determines some events in advance, maybe also responding to human prayers or rituals. This is of course, the reason the "In God We Trust" slogan was put on US coinage during the cold war.
Certainly a future in which AI or aliens controls the earth, could be immeasurably preferable to communism under human control, even if the AI exterminates us at the first opportunity, or the aliens keep us as slaves or torment us, as long as it can free the world from the scourge of communism, and not implement it in any way, shape, or form.
Since even in a democracy we could vote in a disaster outcome like communism, or lose a war with China, we should work hard to obtain a better outcome like this, for example broadcasting our location to nearby stars, funding work on SETI and AI, as well as computing and communications technology, and educating the public about the new Golden Age that awaits us rather than dystopia.
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