I just received my annual TCP-1 letter from LLNS and a summary of the LLNS Pension Plan. Looked in pretty good shape in 2013. About 35% overfunded (funding target attainment percentage = 134.92%). This was a decrease from 2012 where it was 51% overfunded (funding target attainment percentage = 151.59%). They did note that the 2012 change in the law on how liabilities are calculated using interest rates improved the plan's position. Without the change the funding target attainment percentages would have been 118% (2012) and 105% (2013). 2013 assets = $2,057,866,902 2013 liabilities = $1,525,162,784 vs 2012 assets = $1,844,924,947 2012 liabilities = $1,217,043,150 It was also noted that a slightly different calculation method ("fair market value") designed to show a clearer picture of the plan' status as December 31, 2013 had; Assets = $2,403,098,433 Liabilities = $2,068,984,256 Funding ratio = 116.15% Its a closed plan with 3,781 participants. Of that number, 3,151 wer...
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And as you know over the weekend it came out that Warren Buffett sold a large amount of his Apple stock, incurring a large tax bill, during the first half of the year : this may turn out to be a genius move (although we do not know the future) since he now has cash to deploy in a market decline.
We can certainly hope for a utopia at some point in the future and work in that direction, by the way, but chatbots may be incapable of magically producing that outcome.
Any particular overvaluation of certain stocks may not be mirrored in the broader market, and also a general selloff can present an opportunity to increase market exposure in high quality, undervalued stocks.
So a proper market outlook might be somewhat mixed, although at any given time there could be black swan events or even a market crash that happens for no apparent reason.