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Saturday, March 1, 2008
VSSOP poll results
Out of 202 respondents, only 39 said yes would/have take/taken it. That is 20%. An indication (but not a guarantee) that we will be way below 200.
12 comments:
Anonymous
said...
Would you care to explain how you come to this conclusion?
Ignoring the fact that your poll is not based on a statistically valid random sample, if 20% of the population is taking the VSSOP (your poll results), then the expected number of takers at LLNL would be:
20% * population * fraction eligible
or around 500-600 people. So how do you come up with under 200?
Only if you could get everyone at LLNL to come to the blog. As you well know most of them don't care, don't want to be bothered or say, what difference does it make, they are going to do whatever they want. The very same mentality as to why we have a run away government and your taxes, if you add them all up are about 49% of your income. Such a good system we have.
My votes for a flat 10% tax on all income no matter what your income is, with NO write-offs for ANYTHING, period.
"So how do you come up with under 200?" Dear statistician! There is nothing scientific about a poll in a blog. There is no validity, just an indication that a less than overwhelming number of people took the VSSOP; that is all!
I am 1:33PM. I'm glad you acknowledge that there is no statistical validity to your poll -- however, in the top level post you stated "[a]n indication (but not a guarantee) that we will be way below 200" (emphasis mine).
You're being intellectually dishonest when you use the data the way you did in the top level post -- but at least you are forthright enough to admit that in the third comment.
All the rumors I've heard are that there were about 200 people who signed up on the first day (so their decision got "locked in" on day 7). I haven't heard any rumors about how many people signed up in the last couple of days (who can bail out of the VSSOP until the 6th). However, there are a bunch of retirement emails going around already.
Hello 10:56 PM: What are we disagreeing on here? I said there may be less than 200. You said about 200. Since neither one of us is a statistician, let us put the subject to rest.
To add to the not-statistically-significant data points, let's add a couple of anecdotal ones.
I, for one, am in the targeted (er, I mean eligible) pool, and I chose not to take the VSSOP since I don't have an offer "in hand" yet for the replacement job. I expect that I will have an 80% chance of leaving when the offer does come in (the other employer is another government entity, thus the slow response). Honestly, I will leave with or without the severance if the offer is halfway decent. I have 6 years of LLNL service and I am on the younger end of the scale.
Another point that I had heard was that the "pay in lieu of notice" carrot was making some people wait for a bigger payout. For me, pay in lieu of notice is not the issue, just timing. I was probably in denial about the stability of my position at the Lab. A check of LAPIS helped clear that up.
For reference, 200 series (scientists and engineers) get the following notice periods (or pay) from when they are handed notice of involuntary separation, from Section K of the Personnel Policies and Procedures manual:
Yrs service / Notice under 10 / 30 days 10-15 / 60 days 15-20 / 90 days 20+ / 120 days
Less notice for everybody else.
I could see where somebody at age 45, with 18 years of service, would be hesitant to risk a leap in the current job market for 18 weeks of pay, when they would get 18weeks+3months pay if they do get cut loose. Uprooting family and potentially selling a house in this market is somewhat easier to swallow with a quarter year to make things happen.
Pay in lieu of notice is ultimately cheaper for LLNS. While you are waiting for the notice to run its course, you are also earning more vacation and sick leave, using LLNS resources, etc. If you are TCP2, also forget the kick in to your 41(k).
The "notice carrot" was a serious consideration. My brain said I should hold out for the lay off and get the notice pay in addition to the severance. But my heart said I couldn't stand an additional day working for an organization that seems totally FUBAR.
It's a gamble. If you didn't take the VSSOP, you could be laid off with notice. But you might not get laid off and end up working in a position you don't want for an organization that you can't stand. It was time for me to go. I figure to be one of the approximately 200 that exits March 14. Over 35 years since I started with LLNL.
On the facts front: the AD of Comp said on Friday in her monthly newsletter that 27 in the Comp directorate had chosen the VSSOP, but that number might still go down if people elect to reconsider. The cap was 92, so it is a good bet that all that volunteered will be allowed to leave.
12 comments:
Would you care to explain how you come to this conclusion?
Ignoring the fact that your poll is not based on a statistically valid random sample, if 20% of the population is taking the VSSOP (your poll results), then the expected number of takers at LLNL would be:
20% * population * fraction eligible
or around 500-600 people. So how do you come up with under 200?
Only if you could get everyone at LLNL to come to the blog. As you well know most of them don't care, don't want to be bothered or say, what difference does it make, they are going to do whatever they want. The very same mentality as to why we have a run away government and your taxes, if you add them all up are about 49% of your income. Such a good system we have.
My votes for a flat 10% tax on all income no matter what your income is, with NO write-offs for ANYTHING, period.
"So how do you come up with under 200?"
Dear statistician!
There is nothing scientific about a poll in a blog. There is no validity, just an indication that a less than overwhelming number of people took the VSSOP; that is all!
I am 1:33PM. I'm glad you acknowledge that there is no statistical validity to your poll -- however, in the top level post you stated "[a]n indication (but not a guarantee) that we will be way below 200" (emphasis mine).
You're being intellectually dishonest when you use the data the way you did in the top level post -- but at least you are forthright enough to admit that in the third comment.
All the rumors I've heard are that there were about 200 people who signed up on the first day (so their decision got "locked in" on day 7). I haven't heard any rumors about how many people signed up in the last couple of days (who can bail out of the VSSOP until the 6th). However, there are a bunch of retirement emails going around already.
Hello 10:56 PM:
What are we disagreeing on here?
I said there may be less than 200. You said about 200. Since neither one of us is a statistician, let us put the subject to rest.
To add to the not-statistically-significant data points, let's add a couple of anecdotal ones.
I, for one, am in the targeted (er, I mean eligible) pool, and I chose not to take the VSSOP since I don't have an offer "in hand" yet for the replacement job. I expect that I will have an 80% chance of leaving when the offer does come in (the other employer is another government entity, thus the slow response). Honestly, I will leave with or without the severance if the offer is halfway decent. I have 6 years of LLNL service and I am on the younger end of the scale.
Another point that I had heard was that the "pay in lieu of notice" carrot was making some people wait for a bigger payout. For me, pay in lieu of notice is not the issue, just timing. I was probably in denial about the stability of my position at the Lab. A check of LAPIS helped clear that up.
For reference, 200 series (scientists and engineers) get the following notice periods (or pay) from when they are handed notice of involuntary separation, from Section K of the Personnel Policies and Procedures manual:
Yrs service / Notice
under 10 / 30 days
10-15 / 60 days
15-20 / 90 days
20+ / 120 days
Less notice for everybody else.
I could see where somebody at age 45, with 18 years of service, would be hesitant to risk a leap in the current job market for 18 weeks of pay, when they would get 18weeks+3months pay if they do get cut loose. Uprooting family and potentially selling a house in this market is somewhat easier to swallow with a quarter year to make things happen.
The final number will be between 175 and 240. There are still people within 7 days of signing up who can still back out.
In any event, prepare for the ISP.
Pay in lieu of notice is ultimately cheaper for LLNS. While you are waiting for the notice to run its course, you are also earning more vacation and sick leave, using LLNS resources, etc. If you are TCP2, also forget the kick in to your 41(k).
The "notice carrot" was a serious consideration. My brain said I should hold out for the lay off and get the notice pay in addition to the severance. But my heart said I couldn't stand an additional day working for an organization that seems totally FUBAR.
It's a gamble. If you didn't take the VSSOP, you could be laid off with notice. But you might not get laid off and end up working in a position you don't want for an organization that you can't stand. It was time for me to go. I figure to be one of the approximately 200 that exits March 14. Over 35 years since I started with LLNL.
On the facts front: the AD of Comp said on Friday in her monthly newsletter that 27 in the Comp directorate had chosen the VSSOP, but that number might still go down if people elect to reconsider. The cap was 92, so it is a good bet that all that volunteered will be allowed to leave.
Obviously short of the goal ... with only (approx.) 200 or so VSSOP ... They've begun terminating Flex in my area (last day Fri/Mar7).
Looking for someone to layoff?
How about the new ULM who still have their families at their old job site. They are going to be leaving as soon as they can anyway.
... or hold over ULM (translated form UC ULM now LLNS ULM) determined to keep the status quo, no matter what the cost.
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