Are the labs in decline? Or more to the point if they are is something only to with the labs or is it bigger than that?
What exactly is the future of the NNSA labs?I just read this.
Of course the US is in retreat mode. Everywhere you go you hear talk of seccession, civil war, uncontrolled immigration.. We’re no longer the good guys, so servicemen are just mercenaries. Today’s military would make the mixed-race divisions that bugged out in the Korean war look like Stonewall Jackson’s regiment at 1st Bull Run. Who would fight for this sh_t show? Not to mention the mentally retarded weapon systems. What do you call $20 billion of sunk costs? An aircraft carrier.
15 comments:
Let us put it this way. The US just barley got more medals than China in the last olympics. In four years China will be winning more.
As for the labs, come on man, everyone knows they have been in decline for some time. On this and other blogs it was even shown how the labs have been in decline, if one looks at the schools the new hires come from, the number of publications, the general feel of the loss of vibrancy, and so on. The labs have been a canary in the coal mine.
The labs have been in decline since 1945. Their decline has been particularly precipitous as a consequence of the private takeover resulting from Nanos’ arrogant stupidity. That takeover, combined with the lack of actual nuclear testing has created a fox in charge of publicly funded henhouse situation that is completely counter to the National Security needs of a great nation.
Nothing anyone can do about it. Started when the lab started hiring poseurs like the guy who eventually became head of the NNSA. When he was named head of A division in the 90’s no one could believe it. He was parachuted in from Rochester by the NIF people. And he was infinitely more qualified that the current director of LANL who has no background in weapons. And that’s just the people at the top. I know recent lab hires who are washouts from industry, only looking for a paycheck.
LANL is up to 13,000 and growing fast. Obviously, they need to dip below the top quartile to get the warm bodies on board to staff up the pit factory, and the new Santa Fe offices.
Poster 10:36AM has a point. I disagree with 10:09AM the labs have not been in a decline from
1945 on up. I would say the decline started at the end of the 90s. The height of the labs was in the 70-80s.
10:30AM is right, the new hires are simply not very good, at least on average. There are some very good people who still come to the labs but overall it is declining and has been declining for some time. Also you are seeing less and less need for people with advanced degrees, more of the jobs are becoming 9-5 like grunge work with specific tasks, so somebody with just a bachelors degrees can easily do much of this work. In the old days all the work was challenging but those days are long over. I know have enough experience with people that have come and gone and been in industry and academics. Even standard industry jobs in the tech world are often more intellectually fulfilling than what is going on in the labs at this point. \
You seem to have 3 kinds of people at the labs now. (1) people who are interested in advanced science and technology and want and need a challenge in their lives. These are many of the old timers, like it or not this includes some of the NIF people, extreme experiments, some
advanced modeling people who want to make a splash for themselves. The number of these people
has greatly declined over the years, and most young people who could be at this level
will simply not come to the labs. Also managers do not like these people, they also make many of the less productive people uncomfortable.
(2) The 9-5 it is a job that pays well, has job security and you do not have to challenge yourself if do not want to. This is many of the current hires, I do not begrudge these people many choose the labs since it is either the best they can get or like the slower pace compared to the industry. Some can be good, but consider this just another job.
(3) The people with little ability that got in somehow. This is rapidly growing number but are the favorites of managers since they never complain, and suckups, and check-boxes. Many try to move into management as fast as they can. The labs a great place to make good money. Many of these are industry washouts, straight from school to labs, family members friends or people who someone have always been part of the NNSA or military system and arrive through networking. People get points for "bringing people into the labs!" to bad no checks about what they actually do. Success is defined as surviving, not accomplishments, results or anything real. You can survive by being invisible, being extremely social, saying big things, being super visible at every meeting, spending all your time getting money ect. You can never find anything they actually did, but a manager will always say, "so and so knows how to work the system and that is a valuable skill". In the old days people like this would go a a while but at some point they would be out since you have to actually do something. Today they are set, some many of the lab organizations keep defining success by the number of people these guys still count as people so the managers are happy.
Some more comments.
Strongly agree that the US is profoundly dysfunctional and collapsing/collapsed. I do question your conclusion this would result in a wounded US animal being a serious threat to international adversaries in the near term. In fact, you may have it exactly backwards. Biden administration energies thus far appear to be primarily directed at suppression of the US domestic population. A US international ‘retreat’ that may be in progress might include a previous decision that a conservation of resources is needed for this domestic purpose. Just as the roman legions retreated many times from the empire’s frontiers to engage in Rome’s endless civil wars, with the “barbarian’ tribes strategically exploiting each absence, so China/Russia/Iran not to mention so called US allies might perceive the near term to be the best opportunity to move against US interests.
In other words it may be possible that the labs could be partially repurposed to fight growing domestic threats. It is not clear if this would lead to a revitalization of labs. It may seem far fetched to think nuclear determent would matter to domestic issues but this is not a as crazy as you think, even Rep Swalwell talked about this. Suppose Texas, Florida, the Dakotas actually wants to secede from the US, they may take a fair number of the military with them. Nuclear deterrents could make them think twice about this. Maybe we should start thinking about new designs or system for domestic situations rather than international. 67 million well armed people is real threat to our nation. The labs could play a role in containing a future conflict.
“Today’s military would make the mixed-race divisions that bugged out in the Korean war….”
The what? Didn’t everyone notice this guy’s not-so-subltle injection of his bigotry and racism into his post?
-Doug, a “mixed-race” physicist and +30 year veteran of LLNL.
Yeah, agree. This entire thread is a bit crazy.
“Today’s military would make the mixed-race divisions that bugged out in the Korean war….”
The what? Didn’t everyone notice this guy’s not-so-subltle injection of his bigotry and racism into his post?
-Doug, a “mixed-race” physicist and +30 year veteran of LLNL.
8/08/2021 1:39 PM
I am not the one that wrote the post, I found it on another blog and thought it was interesting. I am not sure what the poster means by the by the Korean war. He/she may be saying that racial tensions are raising in the United States right now . I have doubts that it is really important issue within the military. On the other there are many of polls showing that the majority of Americans believe racial divisions are increasing.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/1687/race-relations.aspx
The most recent polls are even worse
https://news.gallup.com/poll/352457/ratings-black-white-relations-new-low.aspx
In 2004 the about 68% both black and white Americans felt relations where good/somwhat good. This ratio is constant up to 2013 or so and since that time has now dropped to around 40 percent. I am not sure what is driving this.
"The what? Didn’t everyone notice this guy’s not-so-subltle injection of his bigotry and racism into his post?
I am not sure what the original poster was saying that was an injection of bigotry or racism.
"Maybe we should start thinking about new designs or system for domestic situations rather than international. "
This is exactly the type of intersectional BS that is intended to divide us. That such a person might be affiliated with a national lab should capture the attention of Counter Intelligence investigators.
"should capture the attention of Counter Intelligence investigators."
Counter intelligence should be focused on making sure Jan 6th does not happen again.
"he what? Didn’t everyone notice this guy’s not-so-subltle injection of his bigotry and racism into his post?"
I looked in into the Korean war comment a bit. I am still rather confused by what the point was and how it relates to the US military today or the decline of the US. As for Korea there was one black division that performed poorly at the start of the Korean war but so did a bunch of other divisions, which is one of the reasons NK almost took the whole peninsula at the start of the war. Drawing a general conclusion about one division out of many that did badly at the same time makes no sense.
Also there are numerous examples of black divisions in the segregated US military that had outstanding results, there are many famous examples of these in wwII, in terms of ground and air action, and there are many others as well in every US conflict.
"Counter intelligence should be focused on making sure Jan 6th does not happen again"
The intel leading up to Jan 6th was available to the Capitol Police. That wasn't the issue.
What is an issue is that presumably cleared people at national labs would advocate violence against US citizens with whom they merely disagree. Who knows what such people might do with the information entrusted to them.
What is an issue is that presumably cleared people at national labs would advocate violence against US citizens with whom they merely disagree. Who knows what such people might do with the information entrusted to them.
8/09/2021 10:39 AM
I find you statement stunning. Are you saying the Capital police knew that there was going to be a coup attempt on Jan 6th? That sounds pretty crazy. The real issue is that Jan 6th happened and could happen again. The FBI has already pointed out that greatest threat to the US is domestic terror from right wing groups. This is May 21 2021
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/12/us/politics/domestic-terror-white-supremacists.html
An insurrection, and domestic terror are not "merely disagreeing" with people. Do you realize what happened on Jan 6th?
"would advocate violence against US citizens"
Insurrectionists are not simply US citizens they are enemies determined to destroy our nation and way of life. They do not believe in the US, democracy, law, or equality. I cannot believe you are defending these people.
The crazies have taken over this thread. Happens a lot here.
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