I took the vaccine and I will take a booster. I am not in a high risk group but I see little personal downside. What I find odd is that all the people saying that if everyone just took the vaccine that we would get rid of Covid. This simply makes no sense. (1) The vaccines wear off rather rapidly. (2) Covid has all sorts of non-human hosts. If you vaccinated the world to 100% Covid is still around in tons of animals and will just come back like every other flu.
They say "listen to the science!". Ok I am a scientist, I am not an expert in epidemics but I do understand math. I have had a few conversations with the epidemic modeling crowd and one thing is obvious is that it is a complex systems and many of these models are not particularly accurate. The epidemic scientists are pretty honest about just how limited what they can predict but somehow the public and politicians have this idea that these scientists know exactly what is going on. In a complex system you simply do not have this level of predictability.
There is also the question is all the hysteria really worth it for fairly mellow disease at least in any historical perspective.
The death rate is rather low and is concentrated on the old and those with underlaying conditions. I would guess in the last 300 years there has been many pandemics of this same lethality that no one really noticed since the number of people over 65 has historically been very low. The 1918 flu killed young people, that is why we know so much about it. Where these mass lockdowns really all the effective? Maybe if they just concentrated on the vulnerable populations that would have been better? I know someone is going to say that is not what the scientists said to do! The problem again is that such systems they really do not know all the variables very well. It could very well be possible that non-locking down and only concentrating on the old could have actually saved more lives, they simply do not know at this point. By the way the number people who die of malaria every year is 410k. The number of Covid death per year is 2.75 million. That is much more but average age of people who died of malaria is much lower with like 60% being children, if you actually calculated total years of life lost it is about the same.
Now the question is if the US actually did a mandate could they get everyone to vaccinated? I would say no. You have have to be willing to go door to door and force people. If you look at the current vaccination rates by populations and groups you are going to run into some problems rather fast. The popular narrative is that it is white republicans that are not getting the vaccine. However if you do a simple calculation. ( I can go through this if you really want, but I simply urge to the reader think about it), you actually have a fairly even split of democrats and republicans who unvaccinated but probably slightly higher on the democratic side.
23 comments:
LANL is not going mandate the vaccines. This is a good step. Vaccines should be mandated for everyone.
The 9:19 AM poster is a typical low information Fox news, anti science nut. If we never locked down Covid would have killed 10 millions, we know this.
By the way the most vaccine hesitant people? People with PhDs. Hmmm
https://unherd.com/thepost/the-most-vaccine-hesitant-education-group-of-all-phds/
By the way I blame a portion of the vaccine hesitancy on media. People simply no longer trust the media or many of our institutions. People go on about how Fox news is fake, a fair point but how is CNN, MSNBC, NPR, NYT, NPR, or the other major news media better or less biased than Fox? I have watched or read all of these and they all seem very biased or dishonest. Of course I could just be some kind of brainwashed idiot. I remember NPR back in 90s, now NPR seems like something for 3 year olds, it is that dumb. I dare you to try and find a broadcast from the 90s or 80s and compare it to what you hear now, it is absolutely stunning.
By the way the most vaccine hesitant people? People with PhDs. Hmmm
8/24/2021 12:02 PM
No. Blacks and Hispanics. And Trumpers.
The local lans newspaper facebook is blowing up right now with anti-vexers calling this whole thing like what nazi Germany wold do. This is being countered by people saying this is nothing like the nazis and they should learn history. The only thing is that some of these same people where saying in 2017 that Trump was just like Hitler and we where living in nazi Germany. Different nazis for different people I guess.
No. Blacks and Hispanics. And Trumpers.
8/24/2021 5:41 PM
Did you actually look at the plot? This was by eduction level not total number.
It is true that the lowest vaccinated group are blacks, followed by hispanics followed by whites. Even among whites though 18% who self identify as democrats said they definitely not getting the vaccine. This probably on top of those democrats who are not against vaccines but just think they are young and do not need or simply do not care. The idea that the unvaccinated are all Trumpers is simply not true when you actually do the math. In fact if the population that us unvaccinated it is probably like 55% who would identify more as democrats. This is on top of that fact that Trump himself has always said one should get the vaccine and he himself got the vaccine, hell he even takes credit for creating the vaccine, which of course is not correct. I would assume Hillary would have cut the same red tape for vaccine development as Trump did if she was president, I would also assume Hillary would take credit for creating the vaccine as well.
You need to get out of your MSM, twitter, facebook bubble and start thinking for yourself. The world is much more complex than that. Most of these MSM narratives simply do not stand when analyzed with actual numbers. (1) Trump supporters are not the only unvaccinated people, and are certainly not the majority but I can understand not supporting Trump because he was such a war hawk and wanted to expand operations in Afghanistan.
As for the lab mandate. It is kind of pointless as 85% already have it. Maybe by getting the last 15% we can prevent 5-7 people from being hospitalized. By banning hiking in the in the local mountain in Los Alamos you can also prevent another 5-10 people from being hospitalized. So what, they key is getting the communities with less than 50% vacation rates to get the vaccine. At the labs you can probably get some of the 15% to go along with since they do not want to get fired.
"If we never locked down Covid would have killed 10 millions, we know this."
Is there a peer reviewed article to substantiate this claim?
If not, then maybe The reason "People simply no longer trust the media or many of our institutions." is justified.
I'm with the original poster on this one. Lots of fear, too few facts. Ripe for opportunists.
Triad is mandating all LANL employees and contractors be vaccinated. https://ladailypost.com/triad-to-require-entire-workforce-at-los-alamos-national-laboratory-and-all-contractors-to-be-vaccinated-against-covid-19/
So boosters every six months? Is this also going to be mandated at LANL? Also I take it that mangers are exempt.
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/us-plans-covid-19-booster-shots-six-months-instead-eight-wsj-2021-08-25/
Anonymous at 8/24/2021 5:41 PM said "No. Blacks and Hispanics. And Trumpers."
How in the world did that little ball of hate get past Scooby?
The implication of ignorance for these two racial and one political group was blatant, and very inflammatory. A classic piece by a troll that deserved to be rejected rather than accepted as suitable for this blog. I've condemned Critical Race Theory and I'll do the same for any snarky comment implying people of color are incapable of making good decisions.
We all make mistakes, perhaps that's all that happened here. Still, it's very dissapointing.
Hello GregS:
I did not consider that comment inflammatory because it targeted 3 races: blacks, hispanics and whites. Perhaps not equally.
I am not convinced of its inflammatory nature. It was not hate-loaded, only biased.
How can I tell which bias hides hatred and which does not?
Any suggestions is welcome.
"No. Blacks and Hispanics. And Trumpers.""
I am not sure if it is hateful, but it is beyond dumb.
First of all there are plenty of Black and Hispanic Trumpers. In fact Trump increased his margins with these groups. I think the Trump Hispanic vote was over 30%. (2) There are many Trump supporters who got the vaccine regardless of race. (3) There are many white Democrats who did not get the vaccine. There are some general statistical trends but you should state that rather than making sweeping generalizations. What is odd is that many of the same people who make such generalizations do not like it when such generalizations are made about their favorite causes. Again the world is always more complex than saying, it is all "so and so groups fault".
Although this blog is better than twitter so much of the "discussion" today is simply you make some statement that you heard off another twitter post or MSM. Someone offers you a counter point, you insult them, than end the conversation, than you post the same argument again.
I have to go with Scooby on this, it is not obvious what the intent of the post was. Although it was obvious that it is a dumb post Scooby does have a blog rule saying dumb posts are not allowed.
You mean "does not have a rule... "
https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/issue-brief/latest-data-on-covid-19-vaccinations-race-ethnicity/
You mean "does not have a rule... "
8/26/2021 1:04 PM
Yes that is what I meant. It is was rather dumb of me to post it the wrong way.
If you're some combination of stupid, paranoid or irresponsible enough to not get vaccinated against Covid, you probably aren't Lab material and shouldn't have a clearance. You've failed a pretty basic test of character spectacularly. Good riddance.
8/27/2021 6:02 AM
You sure sound like a pleasant person. By the way what makes you think you are "lab material" and others not? There is also a study that showed the most vaccine hesitant people where ones with PhDs. Do you admit the possibility that could be outstanding lab personal who for whatever reason did get the vaccine. Also what do you mean by "failed" a character test? Perhaps they just did a simple calculation and thought they are young healthy and have little exposure to at risk people, perhaps they had been around people with Covid but did not catch it and thing they have natural immunity, perhaps they already had Covid and think they have antibodies. Perhaps they had very bad reactions to vaccines before. There are many good reasons to get the vaccines even if you meet all these criteria but stating that these people somehow "failed" a charter test or are not "lab material" simply does not follow. I would argue that most lab positions require people to have some kind of critical thinking skills and realization that there are many complexities in situations. I think you have failed that test and are not lab material. I have been following some the conversations the Los Alamos Daily post Facebook and looked up some of the posters, it is true some of the anti-vacers who are former lab people are not what I would call the top people but some the pro-vaccer current lab people are even worse if you know what I mean.
Why not stick to numbers, risks, benefits, ease of getting the jab when trying to get people at the lab or any other place vaccinated rather than saying they are dumb evil people that probably should not have a job anyway. If you want to go down the road that they are just evil people be prepared for the day when that kind of thinking turns on you and you also labeled someone with the "wrong opinion" who should not be working.
"If we never locked down Covid would have killed 10 millions, we know this.*
I'm still curious whether or not this hysterical claim is substantiated by any peer reviewed literature.
There is far too much hyperventilating....
You're not worth arguing with. All your perspectives fail under examination with empirical data. Period.
The USA is vastly under-performing in the pandemic due to your attitudes. We are an international disgrace. Facts don't lie.When policy follows these perspectives, the pandemic rages and people die. The point of anti vax and anti mask views is to favor personal selfishness over public health and protecting other citizens. That is the failure of character plan and simple.
The vaccine is the right answer for 99% of the people. People who can't get it can get bonafide medical exceptions. Most of the vaccine hesitancy is not supported by any science.
People who can't follow the science don't belong at the Labs.
"You're not worth arguing with. All your perspectives fail under examination with empirical data. Period."
No, they do not and I noticed that you have not provided any data. The vaccine cannot be the "right" answer for everyone by definition since it appears that a certain fraction perhaps 30% are naturally immune. Also there are now studies showing that if you already had Covid than that is much better protection than the vaccine, no one really knows what that number is but 20-40% is certainly possible. I think of many other cases where it may be ok to get the vaccine but will probably not do much in terms of changing the pandemic results.
"Most of the vaccine hesitancy is not supported by any science. "
I just gave you the numbers and there are many more. Now there is also the question of how rushed the vaccines are, we simply have no long term data on this. If you are familiar with science you will know that there are countless examples of medical or other decisions that ended having bad long term effects.
"The point of anti vax and anti mask views is to favor personal selfishness over public health and protecting other citizens. That is the failure of character plan and simple."
Again you have failed to recognize the numbers in the counter arguments. Another point albeit a different one than health, is that many people are worried about government and that once government gets this power they will not give it back. History shows that this can be a legitimate worry. If someone makes the calculation then danger to long term freedoms is more valuable than risk of health in a limited way than that could be justification for their actions. An argument could be made that they actually have more character than people who blindly follow along. Again this is a calculation about what they value and does have a rational basis.
"We are an international disgrace"
That is simply not true nor born out any numbers, there are countless stats on the web showing that the US did much better than many Western European counties. The data for many other counties is simply missing but is surely worse (India, Brazil, China). It is probably not fair to get on the case of places like Belgium for doing so badly since there are other reasons Western Europe did worse but the the idea that the US was uniquely bad is nonsense. Also the US was the one that developed the vaccines and has one the highest rates of vaccinations in the entire world. Australia is at 15% or something, many other countries really mess this up but the US was not one of them.
"Most of the vaccine hesitancy is not supported by any science.
"People who can't follow the science don't belong at the Labs. "
To be honest I suspect you are a troll because your statements are so off. First of all scientists do not say "follow the science". There are very few branches of science that give exact solutions or exact predictions. When it comes to complex systems this
is particularly true. Pandemic predictions, epidemiology are simply not fields that can make accurate predictions due to the complexity, number of variables and unknowns. So the saying "follow the science" makes no sense. I guess it is better than saying follow some limited possibilities with huge error bars since it is better than nothing. The problem is that sometimes the action can be worse than the cure if predictions are wrong. Epidemiology is not an exact science nor does it claim to be. Time and time again the general public uses the term "science" but really has no idea what it actually means.
If you are not a troll I am going to take a guess that you are not a scientist. Nothing wrong with that but you keep making this huge sweeping generalizations that are not accurate. I find it odd that someone who is not a scientist and does not understand what science does is saying that some scientists at a science lab should not work there since they do not follow the science.
7:23 just what, exactly is this thing you refer to as, “the science”. It must be very important because you make all sorts of claims and threats based upon, “the science”. As a scientist, I’d love to know what you are talking about. Perhaps others feel similarly?
"People who can't follow the science don't belong at the Labs."
Real science is not
- unsupported, hysterical claims
- ad hominem attacks to deflect from failure to produce evidence
Have fun with your virtue signaling. The rest of the world will just move on.
Here’s a hint. Real scientists don’t seek, “scientific consensus”; they seek better data. Real scientists don’t care what, “science guys” think; they value logic, mathematics, statistics, peer review, and facts. Real scientists know what the word, “organic” means; they are not persuaded by political platitudes or feel-good movements.
The rest of the world will just move on.
8/28/2021 1:24 PM
As it has already done, to much more sickness and death. See Africa and south Asia.
" to much more sickness and death. See Africa and south Asia.
8/29/2021 5:52 PM"
But, but, the United States was by far the worse country due to Trump. Every place did better the the US, am I right?
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