Is the projected CA Electric Grid Capacity in line with the growth of "Zero Emission" EV goals in CA, or are we getting over our skis?
There is CA proposal to ban new gas engine vehicle sales in CA by 2035 in favor of zero emissions vehicles, like EVs, which will require more capacity from our CA electrical grid. Increasingly, CA cities are no longer installing natural gas furnaces, natural gas stovetops, and natural gas water heaters. Again, this will require more CA electrical grid capacity. And let's not forget about those ~200 natural gas fired electrical generating "peaker" plants in CA. Are those slated to be shut down to reduce pollution too? There is also talk of removing some hydroelectric dams in NE California for environmental reasons.
Some assumptions (please modify as needed)
1. The average work commute of a CA driver is 47 miles/day.
2. The average EV can travel 4 miles/kWh, so 11.75kWh/day is needed to allow for the average daily commute distance. If one recharges overnight that's 1.47kW grid load for 8 hours.
3. If one recharges the full 58.75kWh needed for a weekly commute using a "Level 2" charger, that's 7.34kW grid load for 8 hours. (Assumes 100% charging efficiency which is more like ~88%). As shown in assumption 4 below, this level of power is comparable to the power demand of 2 air conditioners each having a 3.5 ton rating.
4. In the hotter parts of CA, a typical 2,200 square foot home will have a 3.5 ton air conditioner. Assuming an average (older + newer) SEER rating of 12, a 3.5 ton air conditioner which has a 42,000 btu rating, will draw 3,500W. However, air conditioners cycle on and off over a 24 hour period, so the average power draw will be much less.
This leads me to believe the electric power demand for a material increase in CA EV drivers, may be high enough to repeatedly reach a CA electric power demand tipping point. Will charging EVs at night prevent such a tippi
ng point Will charging EVs at night prevent such a tipping point? Hmm. Remember, home air conditioners are the item we are encouraged to raise the thermostat on during high grid demand periods and we are also encouraged to reduce all electrical consumption from 4pm to 9pm.
Are fission plants a CA option and if so, don't they each take 5-10 years to bring on line? If new CA fission plants are not on line by 2035, or if CA wind and solar can't meet the higher electrical demand by 2035, then what? We purchase out of state power that emit green house gases? I would like to see the bones of a plan that has projected EV power demand in alignment with the projected ability to meet this demand. The cost to add such grid capacity and the cost for CA residents to purchase EVs will be of value as well. Lastly, will the raw materials needed to built EVs in mass be largely imported, putting the USA in a dependent and vulnerable position?
5 comments:
NIF can get us to zero emissions!
Lawson Criterion for Ignition Exceeded in an Inertial Fusion Experiment
H. Abu-Shawareb et al. (Indirect Drive ICF Collaboration)
Phys. Rev. Lett. 129, 075001 – Published 8 August 2022
Physics logo See Viewpoint: Fusion Turns Up the Heat
The plan to supply California with coal-generated electricity from Wyoming was put in place in the 1980s. You can bet they’ll double down on that phony green nonsense in years to come.
Tax companies that require employees to be present, and use that to pay for power plants. Set a statewide 45 or 55 speed limit. Ban the sale of non-hybrid gasoline cars, and raise gasoline taxes to lower demand. Pay people to remove air conditioners or tax them.
You wokies can try to pry my V-8's steering wheel out of my cold dead hands, to paraphrase Charlton Heston.
So as China and India put a coal fired power plant on line every week or so (with “global warming” emissions) we here in CA, will happily destroy our economy, make poor people even poorer, while pushing EVs and natural gas free homes with no material or cost effective alternatives, so we can feel good. Now there is a strategic plan to get behind.
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