Friday, April 17, 2020
China may have conducted low-level nuclear test
The US state department has claimed China may have secretly conducted a low-yield underground nuclear test, in an accusation likely to further inflame already poor relations between Washington and Beijing.
A report on arms control compliance does not offer proof, but points to circumstantial evidence, of excavations and other stepped-up activity at China’s Lop Nur test site.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/16/china-may-have-conducted-low-level-nuclear-test-us-report-claims
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48 comments:
Both China and Russia have limited-yield hydronuclear test programs. North Korea has a full yield nuclear test program. Iran will have one shortly. The US is rapidly falling behind the rest of the world in weapon modernization because of its politically-correct non-test program instituted by morons in the last century. Wake up folks!!
4/18/2020 7:47 AM
I would guess that if any kind of testing was done for the US that it would bring major changes to the NNSA labs.
Yes, they would have to train new designers and diagnosticians who currently know nothing but modeling. But who will do the training?
Yes, they would have to train new designers and diagnosticians who currently know nothing but modeling. But who will do the training?
4/18/2020 4:55 PM
I think they will do what they did the last time and just find some very smart people. The United States has plenty so I am not worried.
The technical problems will be surmountable, I don't know if one could make the same claim in regards to the legal issues. It is a certainty that the mayor of Los Vegas and/or the governor of Nevada would sue to stop any testing. Bring in the EPA and any number of Save the Planet entities and you'll tie up the restart of any testing for years. All of that would occur in the 9th District Court which guarantees any work would be stopped and appeals eventually to the Supreme Court would ensue. On the technical side you need to wonder how much stuff was not written down that would be critical to a successful test shot. And if mistakes are made that lead to any venting whatsoever, kiss future testing goodbye. And we've seen how our stoppage of testing has led to Korea and Iran not wanting to pursue their efforts.
I hope testing does resume if no other reason to validate the three decades of modeling.
What last time?
I hope testing does resume if no other reason to validate the three decades of modeling.
If you are so confident than why test?
I'm not 1134 but I suspect the poster meant "the last time we had to invent, or re-invent a capability from scratch."
Everybody is replaceable.
I'm not 1134 but I suspect the poster meant "the last time we had to invent, or re-invent a capability from scratch."
Everybody is replaceable.
4/20/2020 8:52 PM
Everybody? Trump just suspended all immigration to the United States. Where are the smart people going to come from now?
Sure we can replace everyone at the labs and build a new one like we did in 1943...oh wait...never-mind, whatever.
Oh and Kim Jun might be dying. At least someone tests.
If everyone is replaceable why are we in quarantine?
Good times.
I don't want to be pessimist but I would guess WWIII may be around the corner. The labs might be relevant after all.
"If you are so confident than why test?"
Reread my post, nowhere does it say I was confident in the modeling. I was in computer support at Livermore and the test freeze with subsequent modeling was job security. Modeling has the problem of GIGO, garbage in - garbage out. There were old time physicists who had their doubts but came around to supporting Stockpile Stewardship because it was the only game in town.
" I hope testing does resume if no other reason to validate the three decades of modeling.
If you are so confident than why test?
4/20/2020 8:28 PM"
History has proven that the product of confidence and competence is a universal constant.
"Everybody? Trump just suspended all immigration to the United States. Where are the smart people going to come from now?
4/20/2020 10:30 PM"
Smart people are womb ready. Count on the COVID Boomers.
4/20/2020 3:17 PM
Good post, very informed.
I don't want to be pessimist but I would guess WWIII may be around the corner. The labs might be relevant after all.
4/20/2020 11:05 PM
Well, something big is around the corner, with oil futures in negative territory. This means no national income from oil to Saudi, Russia, Iran, and a host of other bad actors. Desperation breeds recklessness. With all nations' military preparedness suspect due to Covid-19, it is indeed a very scary time. Not to mention the impending catastrophic hit from Covid-19 to Africa and parts of South America.
3:10 Exactly.
Last night, I hit a wall. Gutted by the death toll. Disturbed by the govt's shortcomings. Dismayed by political rhetoric that bears no resemblance to reality. Worried about friends who are losing jobs; kids who are missing school; and senior citizens who are living in fear.
I crawled in bed and cried for our pre-pandemic lives. Tears that had been waiting a month to escape.
I wanted to share because it feels freeing to do so. Now is not a time for faux-invincibility
Something I don't understand. There are all these videos of people being arrested for taking their kids to the playground or beach in other states. Yet in Los Alamos the paper posts pictures of families by the pond or hiking or in the the park. How is it they are not getting arrested. Also what is odd is that despite all these people walking around the number of cases in Los Alamos is only 6. I am very very confused, can someone help me on this. New Mexico is suppose to open on Apr 30th, but this sounds nuts.
Yes, 10:42, you are indeed, very, very confused. Maybe you’ve believed what you’ve been told. Maybe that stuff you’ve been told was incorrect. Maybe other people didn’t believe what were told. Maybe they are not confused.
You should understand that the social distancing and stay-at-home rules vary by state, Also, the enforcement of such rules varies by county and municipality.
4/22/2020 10:35 AM
This cannot possibly be real. Please tell me this is not real.
Forget any nuclear testing that may or may not have been conducted. If one wanted the perfect weapon to crash a capitalist economy, they would use covid-19. And if they wanted something other than a traceable ballistic missile to deliver it, they would sacrifice a tiny fraction of their people to deliver it in a non-attributable way, using public international transportation. How good is our intelligence, really?
"Yes, 10:42, you are indeed, very, very confused. Maybe you’ve believed what you’ve been told. Maybe that stuff you’ve been told was incorrect. Maybe other people didn’t believe what were told. Maybe they are not confused.
4/22/2020 2:55 PM"
And maybe they have not been tested. Maybe they are unknowingly spreading the disease among them as they shop at Smith's. What, me worry?
I don’t know why China would have to test. Didn’t Wen Ho Lee give them validated US designs? There must be some gaps in the hard drive data that he delivered to his Chinese handlers.
Forget any nuclear testing that may or may not have been conducted. If one wanted the perfect weapon to crash a capitalist economy, they would use covid-19. And if they wanted something other than a traceable ballistic missile to deliver it, they would sacrifice a tiny fraction of their people to deliver it in a non-attributable way, using public international transportation. How good is our intelligence, really?
4/23/2020 7:06 AM
This kind of talk does should not be on the internet. I hope in the future Google has a way to make sure dangerous ideas likes these are not allowed to be posted.
I don’t know why China would have to test. Didn’t Wen Ho Lee give them validated US designs? There must be some gaps in the hard drive data that he delivered to his Chinese handlers.
4/23/2020 9:18 AM
What makes you think Wen Ho Lee had anything to do with China? I thought was proven long ago that that any leaks that did arise came from the Navy or LLNL? Do try to keep up. If WHL actually did what you claim than why did he spend so little time in jail and win a lawsuit? The whole WHL fiasco was just that. Besides he was not found guilty, and in the the United States that means innocent. You where not around in 2000 and have no idea what a total bs show that whole thing was. Most suspect that whole thing was a plan to get Richardson, Richardson in turn blamed the lab to save himself. WHL of course was sloppy as as hell and pulled the race card nonsense, but the idea that this led to information going to China was total bs. The FBI looked like a bunch of fools.
Over the years the blog has also been full of these " I now classified stuff" guys who clearly do not know anything. These are the same type of guys who also brag about how they served in Vietnam or the navy seals but where never even in the service. The labs seem to have a few of those " I am sooo great but it is all secret" stuff. That might work ok with people at the bar or the cashier at the liquor store but does not cut it with people who have actually worked at the lab. Everybody knows who the pretenders are and you Mr 9:18 AM are a pretender.
4/23/2020 4:30 PM
You are woefully misinformed on the WHL case. I was directly involved both in the initial investigations and in the following forensics. He did what the government accused him of doing, and worse. The case turned out the way it did because the government decided, very late, to cut its losses of classified nuclear weapons data, rather than expose them in court. Why is that so hard for you to believe?
"You are woefully misinformed on the WHL case. I was directly involved both in the initial investigations and in the following forensics."
Remember when I said that we all know of the pretenders are, did it ever occur to you that some of us know some people that where directly involved with the cases who said that exact opposite of you. Of course your "definition" your "involvement could be very different from what the average persons is. Again anyone with experience at labs are very familiar with the small number of "pretenders" who make all sorts claims about how much they know, how important they are, and how much they have done. What you are claiming simply does not ring true with known facts, it does however sound like what I have heard from some people who have opinions of themselves and knowledge far far beyond that of reality.
"The case turned out the way it did because the government decided, very late, to cut its losses of classified nuclear weapons data, rather than expose them in court."
False the case turned out the way it did because it was done so badly and there was no evidence. There was simply no case. Think about what you are claiming, that one cannot go forward with a case because it has classified information, if that is the case then we could never charge any possible spy with anything, yet there has been countless spies that have been charged. Your argument simply makes no sense. Why would they even charge him in the first place if they knew they could never go to court.
"He did what the government accused him of doing, and worse."
Excuse me but the courts decide if he did something he was accused of. They decided he did not. One is presumed innocent until proven guilty. He was found not guilty therefore he is innocent. You can have whatever opinion you want but it is just that an opinion. I think it is better to stick with what was provable in a court of law.
I suspect you simply have no idea what you talking about.
4/23/2020 8:21 PM
The court never saw the evidence, since it was classified. Hence, no conviction.
4/23/2020 8:16 PM\
Well, you are wrong. Were you read in to see the evidence that DOE upper management saw? I doubt it or you would not have the opinion you do. I really don't care what you think. I saw the evidence first hand. He moved the files he was alleged to have moved, when and where it was alleged. The forensics proved that beyond a doubt. The DOE cyber people, the intel people and the DOE upper level security people, and some at FBI, all saw it. I don't know exactly where the decision to drop the case came from, but it was very high up in Forrestal. It took all the investigation teams by surprise.
And, it was not just any "classified information." It was SRD nuclear weapon design information.
4/24/2020 5:27 PM
BS, everything you said is abruptly wrong. You are a pretender. Again some of us where also around back then. The idea that you have to show "classified" information to the public to get a conviction is total nonsense, if you think about it. The case was dropped because there was no evidence.
It looks like someone is trying cover up a poorly done investigation.
5:27 PM there are couple of holes in your story.
Just look up cases with classified or sensitive information and it discusses how to proceed with such cases and there are huge number of ways how to do this just as they have been done on dozens of cases in the past. By the way the it could not have been the decision by Forrestal to drop the case that is not in their jurisdiction. That is up to the FBI and the justice department. If what you are saying is true than there would have been numerous other crimes they could have charged WHL with, with or without classified information. It is kind of telling that they could only get one charge to stick. It seems like there was never a case or solid evidence. The idea that the whole thing was dropped because some of the evidence was classified makes no sense. So I guess we have never charged a single spy with anything.
" He moved the files he was alleged to have moved, when and where it was alleged. The forensics proved that beyond a doubt.
4/24/2020 5:27 PM"
The unanswered question of course is "where did the files go then?"
It's the difference between a security violation and espionage.
So many heads in the sand, so sure of something they have no first-hand knowledge of. Sad. But China is now showing itself a sterling member of the international community so all is well.
"So many heads in the sand, so sure of something they have no first-hand knowledge of. Sad."
Why should we believe your version of things, especially when it runs counters what many others have said and really makes no sense on the face of it.
Who cares what people believe or what they say, if they have no first-hand knowledge? I can't change anyone's mind, but I can state what I am allowed to about what I saw first hand. Believe or not. At this point, it really doesn't matter since WHL is out of a career and the SRD data was saved.
Actually, WHL made a small fortune in his second career as author. Who knows where the SRD data ended up.
Who cares what people believe or what they say, if they have no first-hand knowledge? I can't change anyone's mind, but I can state what I am allowed to about what I saw first hand. Believe or not. At this point, it really doesn't matter since WHL is out of a career and the SRD data was saved.
4/26/2020 5:16 PM
What about others who do have first hand knowledge who disagree completely with what you have stated? Either perceptions are different or someone is lying. In that case we are left with other evidence like the outcome of the case which suggests that you account is wrong. Perhaps there was other information that you did not hear about, perhaps you heard wrong, or misremembered things. In the end the cases was mostly dropped. The idea that this was because it had to do with classified information does not make any sense legally. There are many others who state that there was never a case to begin with. You can believe what you want but with the current evidence the more likely scenario is that there was never a case or it was a terribly botched investigation.
Now just an observation, how many times have ever heard someone say " I know I have first hand observations" and when the truth comes out it was clear they got it completely wrong.
For example, I am no Trump fan by a long shot but I was reading in the news that Trump said that people should drink Clorox to fight the Covid-19. I thought that was pretty crazy but people tweeted me saying they knew for certain that this was true and they had seen on a video. I went to look at the exact press conference and not only did not Trump not say that but did not even say anything remotely like that. How is it that all these people where convinced that was the case?
5:27, What you fail to understand is it is not about what WHL did. It is about the Labbies being able to say the entire recompete of the contract was without merit. UC is great. LANL is great. Nothing to see here. Facts and truth do not matter.
The SRD data that would have been required to prove what he stole was much more than what he actually stole. That is the whole point of the govt retreat.
"5:27, What you fail to understand is it is not about what WHL did. It is about the Labbies being able to say the entire recompete of the contract was without merit. UC is great. LANL is great. Nothing to see here. Facts and truth do not matter.
4/27/2020 3:49 PM"
I don't understand your point. Was there some merit to the recompete of the labs? Facts and truth are exactly what matter. Here is a hint for you. If LANL was the problem why was LLNL also put up for bid? Also how did the whole thing go over, the privatizations of the labs have been a total disaster. If one looks at facts and the truth the whole motive to recompete both labs made no sense. The only motive to put the labs up for bid was about money for corporations. That was it, end of story. Oh and yes they have made some pretty good money off the labs for doing and bringing absolutely nothing.
Look I get that you have some personal problem with UC which is probably related to how you felt you where treated but it seems to have clouded your judgment. It is about you being able to say that your own problems are due to UC, LANL and people that work at the labs, there is nothing more to know as facts and truth to not matter to you.
The SRD data that would have been required to prove what he stole was much more than what he actually stole. That is the whole point of the govt retreat.
4/27/2020 5:11 PM
That makes no sense whatsoever. You just have to prove he stole classified information you don't have to actually show that information in court for the public to see. You know that they prosecuted many cases before with classified information and the information was not made public. You have made this claim before and it is just out and out nuts if think about it. It sounds like some convenient way to cover for the fact that there was never was a case. Why on earth would they even pursue the case in the first place if they knew that they could never go to court? It is just bizarre and does not add up. Again the case cannot be dropped by the DOE it has to be dropped by the FBI or the justice department.
Lots of WHL apologists here. I wonder why. They all did the same thing before the rules and systems were changed to physically isolate classified from unclassified?
Lots of bad security apologists here. I wonder why. Could they have messed up the case due to utter incompetence? Many think so, you be the judge. 5:32PM made some accusations that gave themselves away and what this whole thing is really about. Ever heard of deflection, 5:32PM just a shiny example of that. Perhaps they are looking back and trying to justify what happened. Sometimes the truth is just too hard to bear so you have make up some fantasy about the past.
There are more than a few apologists - something that is odd.
Another aspect of this affair was the "missing hard drives" case, that ran its course while WHL was in solitary confinement. The time lines interleaved, for those who care enough to study that time period. It cost Richardson a potential shot at VP and as I recall, the FBI got their nuts kicked by X-division, which certainly did not help the optics of the WHL case, politically.
5:32 likely. WHL’s book had many unfortunate, but nonetheless true, aspects. Richardson wanted heads to roll. Fortunately, in the end, he was handed his own. Karma.
4/28/2020 9:12 PM
The WHL affair brings up so many strong opinions due to the craziness that it brought about. All sorts of just wild statements where made along with some of the most outrageous news articles in NYT , Times, and TV shows that said stuff about LANL that where completely wrong like that the lab workforce was 70%, WHL was a Chinese citizen, that secretes where openly talked about anywhere in New Mexico, and so on. Names, dates, what was done like LANL just makes rocket planes with chemical weapons was wrong. In many cases retractions had to be made but no one remembers them. Talk about fake news, it was so bad that you have to wonder how much does the news get right about anything else? This was 2000, and 20 years on I doubt the MSM has improved.
After WHL you had the culture of theft problem where again the media said crazy things like water towers and forklifts where stolen. I saw an interview with Walp, who was some cop working at LANL saying nutty things about LANL that I knew for a fact was wrong. I even sent a letter to Fox news about. They of course started the segment off with the same media coverage of WHL with Chinese spy, steals millions secretes for China in part of lab wide spy ring of thousands of people, did this same ring also steal vast amounts of heavy equipment like forklifts for China. Walp comes and says there there was better security in a high school than LANL. The Fox news host said well of course because Openhiemer was communists so it all makes sense. Than you had Bill Richardson who was head of the DOE, a job he should have never head in the first place, leaking fake accusations to the media to try and divert any blame upon himself, than you had Fox news saying this was all on Richardson. Richardson had been a favorite for a VP so he had to be taken out. There was also the FBI and some their people who apparently wanted to take Richardson out was well so I bet they pushed for the most outrageous stuff to make him look bad, which they did. The whole thing was a huge mess driven by politics. No one was interested in actual national security.
Of course after all that things just got darker for LANL with Pete Nanos and then LANS. Some of us know just how many of the very best people we lost over this time period and LANL is simply not the lab of the same stature it was before 2000.
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