Ok, well, when I think fusion breakthroughs, I always think famous biologists first. Next, I think Z-Machine. Third, for commercial power, I think ICF. Put all of those together and you clearly have a winner. I mean, from their press releases, they clearly understand that because a Z-pinch uses a magnetic field like a tokamak, it must not be ICF and it must be cheaper than NIF and it must be viable for continuous commercial power generation like ITER. I mean, ITER is on budget and schedule, so why not?
On a serious note though, ignition at NIF clearly kicked off major investor enthusiasm for all things fusion, and given that we are nearing the end of the current economic froth cycle, I don't fault any scientist, even biologists, from cashing in on deep pocketed investors who think fusion is just another app to scale. Honestly, the only thing they are missing here is AI, right? Oh wait, they claim that too. Hold on, I'm also going to have ChatGPT write me a competing business plan to pitch. This could be big.
ITER is not continuous, no tokamak is. They require external heating and disruption control. ITER's schedule and budget has shifted a few times including recently. Planned D-T operation is now just before 2040. It is still planned for pulsed mode.
Pacific fusion has evidently only raised $900M in a series A funding round -- and has a variety of ongoing operations aside from this new $1B project. Do they actually have the $1B lined up, does anyone have a reference for that, or is this contingent on someone giving them the money in the future? The article mentions a bond issuance, but who is guaranteeing the bonds, and why would anyone buy them otherwise?
Nice try, I see what you are trying to do there. nanosecond Z-pinch pulsed ICF is in a completely different regime than pulsed operation of a tokamak in pulsed mode. That's like saying ns pulses are comparable to second-long or even ms pulses. Shows a complete lack of understanding, not to mention the different physics.
Yes, tokamak pulsed are longer. They are hoping to get them up to minutes. But no power company will use a power source that is shut down on even an hourly rate.
1:33 -- I see that, but those are less than $1B, also they are not being guaranteed by the city it seems. What investors will buy them given the obvious risk of default? In other words, how certain is the $1B plan to come to fruition, will it actually materialize, or is it an aspirational plan?
I think it's more aspirational. The investors are basically saying, "hit these milestones during your goal to cure cancer and we will dish out a huge sum of money in a graduated way." Well guess what? If any business makes significant progress toward the Holly Grail, money is going to rain down on them from investors the world over. So in a way, it's disengenuous because the investors aren't really taking a risk. They are just stating the obvious. It's more of a way to get a PR boost by announcing a big number that sounds like a commitment that reflects the promise of the company, but in reality, it's not.
It's no different than if anybody on this blog makes an offer to invest $1B if commercial fusion is solved. Well, that's not taking a risk because the payoff is much higher than that with probability = 1.0.
10 comments:
Ok, well, when I think fusion breakthroughs, I always think famous biologists first. Next, I think Z-Machine. Third, for commercial power, I think ICF. Put all of those together and you clearly have a winner. I mean, from their press releases, they clearly understand that because a Z-pinch uses a magnetic field like a tokamak, it must not be ICF and it must be cheaper than NIF and it must be viable for continuous commercial power generation like ITER. I mean, ITER is on budget and schedule, so why not?
On a serious note though, ignition at NIF clearly kicked off major investor enthusiasm for all things fusion, and given that we are nearing the end of the current economic froth cycle, I don't fault any scientist, even biologists, from cashing in on deep pocketed investors who think fusion is just another app to scale. Honestly, the only thing they are missing here is AI, right? Oh wait, they claim that too. Hold on, I'm also going to have ChatGPT write me a competing business plan to pitch. This could be big.
Great news for NM specialized skill workers now you have this project, Sandia and Los Alamos to bounce between.
ITER is not continuous, no tokamak is. They require external heating and disruption control. ITER's schedule and budget has shifted a few times including recently. Planned D-T operation is now just before 2040. It is still planned for pulsed mode.
Pacific fusion has evidently only raised $900M in a series A funding round -- and has a variety of ongoing operations aside from this new $1B project. Do they actually have the $1B lined up, does anyone have a reference for that, or is this contingent on someone giving them the money in the future? The article mentions a bond issuance, but who is guaranteeing the bonds, and why would anyone buy them otherwise?
Nice try, I see what you are trying to do there. nanosecond Z-pinch pulsed ICF is in a completely different regime than pulsed operation of a tokamak in pulsed mode. That's like saying ns pulses are comparable to second-long or even ms pulses. Shows a complete lack of understanding, not to mention the different physics.
Yes, tokamak pulsed are longer. They are hoping to get them up to minutes. But no power company will use a power source that is shut down on even an hourly rate.
Albuquerque city council has voted on the bonds. You could have searched and found this out yourself.
1:33 -- I see that, but those are less than $1B, also they are not being guaranteed by the city it seems. What investors will buy them given the obvious risk of default? In other words, how certain is the $1B plan to come to fruition, will it actually materialize, or is it an aspirational plan?
I think it's more aspirational. The investors are basically saying, "hit these milestones during your goal to cure cancer and we will dish out a huge sum of money in a graduated way." Well guess what? If any business makes significant progress toward the Holly Grail, money is going to rain down on them from investors the world over. So in a way, it's disengenuous because the investors aren't really taking a risk. They are just stating the obvious. It's more of a way to get a PR boost by announcing a big number that sounds like a commitment that reflects the promise of the company, but in reality, it's not.
It's no different than if anybody on this blog makes an offer to invest $1B if commercial fusion is solved. Well, that's not taking a risk because the payoff is much higher than that with probability = 1.0.
This will be the Theranos of fusion. I expect jail time for some of these people.
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