BLOG purpose

This BLOG is for LLNL present and past employees, friends of LLNL and anyone impacted by the privatization of the Lab to express their opinions and expose the waste, wrongdoing and any kind of injustice against employees and taxpayers by LLNS/DOE/NNSA. The opinions stated are personal opinions. Therefore, The BLOG author may or may not agree with them before making the decision to post them. Opinions not conforming to BLOG rules are deleted. Blog author serves as a moderator. For new topics or suggestions, email jlscoob5@gmail.com

Monday, September 10, 2012

Wind power, some intellectual honesty for a change?

Anonymously contributed: ================================================================================ The following link is internal: =================================================================================== https://pao-int.llnl.gov/news/peoplegrouphighlights/2012/Sep/NR-12-09-03.html ====================================================================================== This posting is about the use of science and “expertise” to carry out agendas. I believe the subject article, which probably is only accessible from within LLNL, is an example of intellectual honesty. The thesis is that wind power from the ground can hardly dent the energy needs of the country or the modern worlds energy needs. That’s fine, even though politically incorrect, it is somewhat verifiable, and serves as an example of what I believe has been the largest “con game” in history. Predicting the weather reliably has eluded meteorologist for years. Perhaps the most reliable predictions came from Farmer’s Almanac. Hurricane tracks are possibly the best of example of realistic and useful computations that display some accuracy, but only a few days out. Why is weather prediction and climate change so hard to predict? It is a mathematically ill-conditioned problem, and basically it is an extrapolation from past data at best. Extrapolation is the most unreliable form of estimation no matter what techniques: extrapolation from “fitting past data “ or from extended solutions from initial conditions differential equations. In this field, we already have seen “politics or chicanery” by cooking the historical data, a scandal that broke several years ago. Ill-conditioned problems are by definition extraordinarily sensitive to input data. In fact, almost any solution can be attained through manipulation of input data in an ill-conditioned setting. Everything from the unpredictable (and un-modeled) solar flares, to unknown physical or biological processes in the oceans can make huge swings in a 100 year prediction. To represent our calculations as accurate (even to the point of sharing in a “so-called” Noble Prize) borders on intellectual dishonesty. Physicists should stick to subatomic particle calculations that are nearly impossible to verify, rather than weather prediction which we all will see. I venture to suggest that even if global warming is occurring, the calculations are not correct, and 100 years from now, we will see that they were wrong, whether or not global warming is real. (In other words, right answer from bogus computation, better known as a guess. After all, it is a 50-50 proposition, and a flip of the coin may work.) What is remarkably irritating is that this “stuff” finds its way into economic and political decisions. It is even added to by lame political suggestions that there is a “green economy” that can replace jobs lost from carbon based energy. This assertion was first made by a political hack during Hillary’s bid in 2008. There may be some jobs to gain, but it would the “green industry” that cleans up both nuclear and carbon based energy so that we can continue to harness coal, oil shale, and other truly mid-east liberating energy. That green energy could enhance revenue to those footing the bill. Clearly a policy that suggests that we can pay companies through government subsidies to build hugely expensive wind turbines or solar panels, then pay the private sector to operate them with tax breaks or pay consumers to purchase solar through tax subsidies, CAN NEVER BE A VIABLE ECONOMY. They idea that you can build an economy based on government selecting a technology, paying people to create it, then paying people to use it is not just socialism, it is stupid. As Margret Thatcher said, “socialism works great, until you run out of other people’s money.”

9 comments:

Anonymous said...


Look at Denmark it is 100 wind power! For Gods sake man, we are running out of oil and we need to do something now! The great resources of the labs can be used to help create green energy

Anonymous said...

The 3-day to 5-day forecasts have improved remarkably over the last few decades. The writer knows not of what he speaks.

Anonymous said...

Denmark is not "100 wind power". See wikipedia. They hope to get to 50% by 2020. They are fortunate to buy power from other nearby countries when the wind stops blowing. In 2008 they were 18.9%, but this number doesn't tell the complete story because they need to have substantial backup generation when the wind doesn't blow.

Anonymous said...

"Denmark it is 100 wind power"

some intellectual honesty for a change - not.

Anonymous said...

The last time I checked, one still needed hydrocarbons or nuclear to manufacture wind turbines or solar panels. To put things into a different perspective, consider the fact that the State Water Project is the single largest user of electricity in the state; how many windmills would it take to operate just the pumplifts?

As for LLNL/LLNS or what ever it is called theses days goes, good luck on that "creating energy" thing.

Anonymous said...

Pretty typical, attack the poster rather than engage the points made. 1. the attack on wind power was by the LLNL study, not the poster.
2. Sure 3 to 5 day forcastes have improved, but they are a far cry from 100 year predictions, and still the gold standard in weather is to be the forecaste that tomorrow's weather is the same as todays which wins 50% of the time.
3. Citing Denmark is nothing short of commical. Its all part of the hype. I suppose they run their cars with sails, and they are world leaders in manufacturing, farming, computing technology etc. Give me a break.

They are however, one of the largest welfare states, also according to Wikipedia.

Anonymous said...

September 11, 2012 11:11 AM

If you post had just been in 2011 it would have been perfect.

you'd be surprised said...

I sure hope the fool that thinks Denmark runs on wind power doesn't work with HM at the lab...

Anonymous said...

Wind and solar power generation will succeed or not depending on their market viability. Government subsidies will never make them successful, but will contribute to bankrupting our nation. Electric power will never provide transportation energy sufficiency. No windmill will ever power a car. No one outside major cities will ever give up a car for transportation. If you value individual liberty, you will reject government interference in any marketplace.

Blog Archive