"Don't Throw MFE under the bus because of recent ICF failures"
This is a New York Times opinion piece that takes a blog post from PPPL director,
Excerpts:
The fact that ignition in a large American experimental inertial confinement fusion facility did not occur as hoped by Sept. 30 has sadly raised questions about the scientific legitimacy of that pursuit. That the scientists did not meet their goal by that day probably has little bearing on that field’s ultimate success. Importantly, this non-event should not bear any relation to the fate of other vital work centering on an entirely different approach known as magnetic fusion.
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/19/in-defense-of-sustained-research-on-fusion/?ref=lawrencelivermorenationallaboratory
18 comments:
Any boy, those MFE projects have really been going well. They've been at it since the mid 50's and are nowhere near ignition. Goodness no, we wouldn't want NIF's "failure" to detract from that track record.
Not that MFE couldn't be made to work. We (the US) just decided that it's not important enough and gave up on it.
Personally people I think with the Obamanator in office every agency and all the people except for the parasites are going to take a beating in taxes, cuts, etc. Remember Robinhood and Santa Clause are in office and as long as he continues to promise a free ride at the tax payers expense, the bigger the sucking sound will be from your wallet and your life. The ride has just begun. 2013 Fiscal Cliff and the next recession as well on their way. Wait until you see the stock market drop this time.
So the mfe welfare community wants to distance itself from the band of con artists. Maybe the con artists could sell the mini star and some oceanfront property in Nevada to the Chinese to pay down the debt. Hey in that Wall Street movie, wasn't the Shia the Beef character trying to sell something similar to Chinese investors? We should sell them MFE stuff also. See! Con artists are useful!
The educational system needs to produce more Ph.Ds in plasma physics. The government likes to keep throwing money at programs to keep these valuable phds from having to get real jobs as cashiers at MacDonalds or as taxi cab drivers or something well suited for the large subset incapable or unwilling to demonstrate real value to real employers. The government recognizes, above all, the value of plasma physicists who serve on technical review committees and rubber stamp huge government projects, while explaining away failures by proclaiming the discoveries do not occur on a schedule. Big government advocates can justify there mega government programs by encouraging more people to get into fusion research, by tortilla ring them with jobs in these programs. And these researchers will spin and misinterpret and misuse results frim computer codes to further justify their own existence and self-importance.
We need more plasma physicist in this world and we need bigger government sponsored research programs to keep them employed no matter what. It's better to throw big money at them rather than at programs for elderly, lower income, or disabled. We've coddled the latter interest groups for far to long and enough is enough. If they are going to bleed our country dry, then plasma physicists better get their share of the pie too before the whole system collapses. It's only fair.
The research done in support of MFE (long term overarching goal) is unique because it is not driven by the markets, nor by warfare and defense applications. The only way to really pay for endeavors that produce intangible value that is expressed very subtly and slowly over time, to the global community, is through government program.
I concede that it is a valid question, whether MFE science spending is too much or too little or whether there is any value in something some see as science-for-the-sake-of-science. But expectations are that these programs go about it in an honest and trustworthy way, since it is tax-payer money being spent. This expectation was flagrantly ignored by top NIF management, as demonstrated through many years of PR campaign circus side-show. This was a very clear and blatant violation and abuse of public trust. The MFE community is right to distance themselves from this.
Sorry, I don't buy it. MFE has been leeching for almost 6 decades. No significant output or progress since TFTR in the early 80's. It's not the fault of the MFE community, but they're just subcritical in terms fo resources.
Say what you want about NIF, the gov't finally decided to accomplish something, and did. That's rare these days. And you can (and certainly will) argue that it was all due to a con-job, but even then, I argue it's better to have done it than to have pissed money away for decades like we are on MFE.
They would be leeching if they didn't publish. But their publication rate per government program dollar expended is exceptional compared to what you get out of NIF. Plus mfe people aren't blowing hot air up our asses and making bullshit proclamations about pilot plants in ten years. And another point about NIF: 4 words: alpha hearing milestone failure. Scurrying around like little gerbils to figure out schemes and knob turns to get things to work - a great example of how not to do science. And the NIF icentropic compression experiments are abominations in terms of analysis and interpretation. These people are a joke. You don't spend 5 billion dollars and then put out rubbish work.
Yeah they are asking for yet another "Deuterium EoS" fiasco. Notice how what shows up on conference presentations many of which are not publically released are different from actual publications? Shows that they are more careful about screwing up, though they should really be more concerned with their own competence. Being more wishy washy and abstract about analysis and interpretation is a very clear indicator of technical incompetence. Just as an observer for several decades, I would have to say that there is much more of this in recent years at the lab, and particularly involving the same people over and over. I am almost afraid of asking them to answer basic questions that undergraduates are required to answer, fearing confirmation that these people are mostly faking it through life, protected from scrutiny by security fences and a veil of self-importance.
So if Trivelpiece and others are saying that the technical work coming out of NIF is superb, but it turns out that many are putting out suspect work that could become yet another "deuterium eos fiasco..." what does this say about Trivelpiece? That he's not at all independent or credible or both? Is this the kind of activity that the government should be putting money into?
I would rather see big government programs that distributes lollipops and teddy bears to crack whores and meth addicts than to see money pumped into MFE. By the same token, I would rather see money pumped into MFE than to NIF.
This is a mafia translation guide for interpreting statements made by people on behalf of but not directly employed by llnl/NIF.
Brilliant = Ignition achieved
Outstanding = excellent technical work
Excellent = just okay , marginal
Superb = mixed bag of horse and cow manure
Well-received = they get credit for showing up to work and that's the best we can say about them
Promising = they were better off if they DIDN'T show up to work.
Stay tuned for more media translation guides and look for a version of NIF buzzword bingo. When you hear a buzzword or phrase you can mark that box. Can you be the first to get five in a row?
If the government was smart they'd cut all research funding until the national debt was at zero dollars however they'd have to cut all spending for anything that was not absolutely need and do not raise taxes on anyone for any reason. They just need to learn they can not spend a dime more than they bring in and the budget must be balance on Dec 31st of each year or they all forfit their annual income and benefits.
I guess we're forgetting all the "broken promises" of the MFE days. How about the "Fusion Energy Act of 1980", signed into law, saying we would have a fusion power plant by 2010 (or maybe 2020, I forget). How about a TFTR that never reached its objectives? How about the "con-job" on baseballs, stellarators, spheremaks, and mirror machines?
MFE has been on the skids for so long that everybody has forgotten that it had a reputation of "always being 20 years away" long before ICF was conceived.
I love MFE, and have no doubt it would work. IF we would just take it on. But we've shown for 30+ years that we're just not going to try hard enough. Too bad.
NIF should go the way of the mirror machine. Maybe congress will give llnl a consolation prize, like work regarding a weapons design that is forcibly taken from lanl's mission space. LANL can afford to let one or two go to llnl. After all, they are in the land of enchantment. All those living on bathtub row are all so generous .
I have today signed H.R. 6308, the Magnetic Fusion Energy Engineering Act of 1980, a bill authorizing a magnetic fusion research, development, and demonstration program within the Department of Energy. The bill establishes as a national goal the successful operation of a magnetic fusion demonstration plant in the United States by the year 2000. The scientific results of magnetic fusion experiments have been highly encouraging so far, and there is considerable confidence that controlled fusion reaction can be achieved. Congressman McCormack and Senators Church, Tsongas, Baker, and Domenici are to be commended for their foresight in obtaining the enactment of H.R. 6308.
Jimmy "Peanuts" Carter
We got "conned" by LLNL for 12-years (and counting) beyond this "dream" bill.
Oh was this how the Smoke and Mirror machine was funded?
These as well as almost all other federal and california state programs can contribute to reducing the federal debt by forcing employees and contractors to take a 5% one-time compensation cut in 2013 followed by a 2-year freeze. With the cuts taken out of budgets and used only toward debt reduction.
This, with letting the Bush tax cuts expire for all, and increasing the medicare and social security age to 68 for all would go a long way toward making our kids futures brighter, with or without Mr. Fusion.
I'm thinking North Dakota and Canadian oil and gas from shale moot all of these discuassions.
Post a Comment