Saturday, October 20, 2012
Suggestion for unbiased predictions
Anonymoulsy contributed:
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I am not sure what the new polling stats about the presidentail elections had to do with this website.
But in case you really want unbiased predictions I suggest
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fivethirtyeight.com
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31 comments:
Thank you for your contribution. WHat makes you thing the one I posted is biased?
I included it because it provided HTML code for anyone who wants it on their website.
The trend is your friend in elections and Mitt Romney is trending extremely well right now. Given his trend (and assuming he hasn't peaked too soon) my best estimate is that you'll be hearing the phrase "President Romney" in the not too distant future.
As far as how an administration change might affect the labs, I have no clue. Regardless of who wins, the massive and growing federal deficit is going to put the brakes on lots of agency spending before too long. Downsizing at the NNSA labs is still in the early stages.
Not everybody is downsizing. It appears that Russia is serious about increasing the strength of their nuclear arsenal:
Putin flexes muscle in big test of Russia's nuclear arsenal
By Steve Gutterman
MOSCOW | Sat Oct 20, 2012 3:34pm EDT
(Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin took a leading role in the latest tests of Russia's strategic nuclear arsenal, the most comprehensive since the 1991 Soviet collapse, the Kremlin said on Saturday.
The exercises, held mostly on Friday, featured prominently in news reports on state television which seemed aimed to show Russians and the world that Putin is the hands-on chief of a resurgent power.
Tests involving command systems and all three components of the nuclear "triad" - land and sea-launched long-range nuclear missiles and strategic bombers - were conducted "under the personal leadership of Vladimir Putin", the Kremlin said.
As the OP noted, Nate Silver has ths most detailed look at each of the polls - state by state and national - and a daily unbias comprehensive analysis of the race.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
October 20, 2012 11:09 PM
I agree with you. Massive spending is going to have to stop, taxes are going to have to go up, welfare and freeloaders benefits are going to have to come to a stop and anything that is absolutely not necessary is going to have to have its funds cut completely. The $16T is going to have to be paid down to $0.0 ASAP or the US is doomed to be just anothwr greece. Projects like NIF and CMRR will have to be put off for another ten years or so. Now if Obumer is re-elected, we as a nation are finished, period since he has no clue to to manage a budget or live within his means.
We may be at the point of no-return where voters who benefit directly from government spending outnumber everyone else.
"October 22, 2012 4:39 PM"
We have a way to go before we are Greece. In many ways I agree with what you are saying but you do realize that if we do what you are saying we should do than people like are you are gonna get essentially wiped out. It will be a very rough world for the lazy, meek, weak minded and NASCAR fans.
Our ratio of US federal debt to GDP is currently running at about 90%. Japan's ratio is over 250% and they have been borrowing to do "stimulus" spending now for over 20 years! Their economy fell into a depression way back in 1990 and has still yet to fully recovery. Nevertheless, even with all their years of massive government borrowing, the Yen is still one of the strongest currencies in the world.
Plus, remember that the US Dollar is the world's reserve currency (used in almost all global trade) and that cannot be change overnight. Being the world's reserve currency is an incredible advantage for us. It takes decades for trading instituions to change their standard currency for trade. Most critical world commodities like oil are bought and sold with US dollars around the world. In fact, countries like China are *forced* to buy our US Treasuries (i.e., US dollar denominated debt) because they sell tons of goods to the US in dollars. It's how they manage their highly lopsided trade balance with America.
Yes, the US needs to reduce spending but it can be done slowly to mitigate the economic dammage. It's kinda like a car on ice... slam on the breaks and you will start sliding and likely go over the side of the bridge and plunge into the river below.
Saying that the US is headed the way of Greece tells me that the people making this analogy really have no clue about global economics. The situation in Greece is serious because (a) they are stuck using the Euro and so can't devalue their currency, and (b) most of the country is dishonest and their citizens rarely pay their taxes yet wanted incredible benefits. For example, until recently, "hazard" occupations like hair dressers could retire with a government pension at FULL salary at age 50! I kid you not.
We are NOT Greece. We still have the world's most powerful military (by a long shot) and still control most of the world's financial transactions. People need to get a grip. We are still, and will remain for a long time, a super-power with great economic strength.
October 22, 2012 10:04 PM
Wow a voice of reason. In some ways even Greece is not Greece as there is a lot of money but it is all in private hands.
But still saying we are Greece sounds good. 4 years ago the United States was at it peak after 8 years of republicans. No debt, the only world power, thriving economy, war on terror won, and true freedom. Now four years latter all of that has been lost. We are now on our way to Greece, we have massive debt, a third world power, terror returning and drones everywhere.
October 22, 2012 10:04 PM
You have a really positive outlook but for me I did the math and don't like bills and beleive we should be debt free. To give you an idea of what $16T is here's my take. If you had a personal loan for $16T at 0% interested you payment would be $89,000 a day for 425,000 years before you debt would be paid in full. I want the national debt and unfunded liabilities of the US to be ZERO, now and forever. NEVER for any reason is the government to spend a dollar more than it brings in and I want a flat tax of 10% and that it. The 10% is your obligation to cover your state and federal taxes and the IRS abolished. How we get there is doable but we have no one in politics with any balls.
"October 23, 2012 6:10 AM"
I agree, people like us will survive when the dollar collapse. All you eggheads with your college degrees will have to figure out real world skills like hunting and fishing. My 6:10AM brother and I get it. See what all the education gets you in the future. Can you make a fire, build a shelter, skin a buck, run a trot-line, drive a four wheeler, own a dog?
Just like 6.06AM I have absolutely no understanding of basic economics but I have the skills to survive. Greece is now Road-Warrior hell on earth are you prepared when we become the next Greece?
October 23, 2012 7:37 AM
Oh God, not the "hunting and fishing" crap again. Jeez, give it a rest already. Trumpeting your lack of value to anyone but yourself is embarrassing you, if you could just see it. "Drive a four wheeler"??!! Yeah, now there's a rare skill indeed. Truly impressive. And I never knew anyone who could "own a dog." Wow.
Hey we technies got skillz. We watched MacGuyver. We haz copies of the Anarchist Cookbook somewhere in our old high school junk. We playz enough first-shooter vid games to know how to survive against an onslaught of zombies. Bring it on armageddon. Nerdz make the best survivors.
October 23, 2012 9:57 AM
Oh that's real cute Mr Geek with a college degree. You know what I bet playing video games and thinking how smart you are the only thing you are good at. We will see that he who laughs best today will also laugh last. Well to quote a really great philosopher "a country boy can survive" and ya Hank Williams Jr puts wannabes like Wittgenstein and Heidegger to shame.
October 23, 2012 7:24 PM
"Oh that's real cute Mr Geek with a college degree."
Well, the fact are that the unemployment rate of people without a college degree is twice, or a little more, than that of people with a college degree. There are simply no high paying, career jobs with opportunity for advancement for people who did not go to college. That disparity will only increase as the economy trends more towards professional and technical industries, and even so-called "blue collar" manufacturing jobs now require the ability to run complex computer-controlled manufacturing and assembly machines and to understand equally complex technical specs and tolerances.
The "country boys" are a dying breed, and mostly by choice. When you choose to drop out of high school, or to skip college, you have sealed your fate as a low-wage earner and an eventual drain on society as a senior citizen who has never made a plan to not be dependent on the government. What if you lose your Social Security and Medicare, Mr. Self-Sufficient?? You going to hunt and fish your way out of colon cancer or a stroke?
October 23, 2012 9:41 PM
He who fights with retards might take care lest he thereby becomes a retard.
October 23, 2012 9:41 PM
There is a need for all types of people in this world and this includes those who don’t have a college degree it's just the school boys and girls who think having a college education makes them better than anyone else will always make more money than most blue collar workers, even if their degree is in basket weaving. It's a well-known fact those who attend Ivy League school such as Yale, Harvard or Princeton, even if they’re worthless to society as boobs on a bore hog will always get the best jobs, have the best life, live in the best homes and drive the best cars. If you want to see a prime example of what these graduates turn into look and what they can accomplish look no further than our professional politicians who’ve driven the country into a recession, created the national debt that can never be paid down and still can’t figure out how to run a country if their life depended on it. Yes sir buddy, that college education turns out the finest the world has to offer. Oh and I forgot one more very important point, they mostly vote socialist democrat which consequently gets you Obamanomics.
October 23, 2012 9:41 PM
Troll alert
Troll alert
October 24, 2012 5:11 PM
Thank you for your alert. You can turn off the flashing red light on your beanie now.
"Oh and I forgot one more very important point, they mostly vote socialist democrat which consequently gets you Obamanomics."
And Bushanomics was better? I thought that was what got us into this mess.
Well we could at least try Gary Johnsonanomics, at least it would be new.
Why not have the labs use a the big computers to simulate different kinds of economies and see which one is better?
Why not have the labs use a the big computers to simulate different kinds of economies and see which one is better?
October 24, 2012 8:17 PM
You can only model a system you understand. Economic forces don't obey the laws of physics. The forces are obscure, and the people involved cannot be assumed to be "rational actors."
"... and the people involved cannot be assumed to be "rational actors."
Nor can the bloggers.
It's not even a "quality" troll exchange.
For predictions, I preferred Johnny Carson's Carnac the Magnificent. The time between the prediction to result was short, and the results were painless.
It's not even a "quality" troll exchange.
October 27, 2012 1:48 AM
You sound like a person who "trolls" the blogs so that you can call everyone else "trolls." Care to share your (undoubtedly twisted) definition?
Someone gave a good definition of a troll in the kqed thread.
Why accuse someone of being a troll, but then ask for an definition? The act of drawing people into an exchange of mental masturbation (there are more crude terms for this, one that has the word "circle" in it) is an act of trolling. I'm confident that none of the contributors here actually works in international finance or economic policy analysis (reading the Economist doesn't qualify you). So this "exchange" is just a "circle XXXX" and people are just trolling each other (using poor or absent logic, selective choice of evidence, etc.)
The definition of "troll" obviously varies among posters. To suggest that asking for a poster for his/her definition is "trolling" is just stupid, not to mention pedantic and simplistic. There might be more economic policy experts here than you imagine. Again, simplistic thinking.
Policy experts may be reading (no way to know for sure) but certainly They were not posting in this thread. Prove me otherwise.
Dang. Name this dude!!!! I wanna know!!!
I'll start putting attribution, identification/attribution methodology and confidence level metrics In a pastebin for these types of posts. I see one already deleted but luckily I retain all caches and trace logs.
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